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Forum LockedUSA/NATO vs Russia - Analytical thread started

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Jun-2008 at 21:02
Originally posted by Richard XIII Richard XIII wrote:

Ukraine will not be admitted into NATO, if Russia will join NATO in a large christian coalition, or something like that, Ukraine will entry too but otherwise Germany will oppose to Ukraine admittance forever (gas and oilWink). 


But how would Russia react if they did so?

I imagine it wouldn't be good?


Edited by Kevin - 22-Jun-2008 at 21:03
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Richard XIII Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Jun-2008 at 21:39
Cutting the gas!
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...the rest are details."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Jun-2008 at 23:42
A few observations here in regard to the NATO (US/non-Russian Europe & aspirants) and Russia controversy:
 
1)  As stated before, Europe since the 1940s has become an appendage of the Eurasian landmass.  It therefor remains a potential zone of contention and conflict between Russian and American power.  It is in Russian interests that Europe remain fragmented and dependant on outside (US) power that is primarily directed toward Asia these days.
 
Russia's perception of security concerns is still affected by Europe's aggressive hegemons in the last two centuries (France/Germany).  The US, in contrast, is remote and her interests are directed more towards other geographies now.  In addition, Russia and the US have avoided war between them.  US presence in Europe is helpful to Russian geopolitics.  Much of Europe's material needs, at least in the 1950s and 60s, did not have to be met by Russia (USSR).
 
2)  On the other hand, Europe's perceptions of Russia are strongly influenced by Russia's tendency to crush opponents and potential adversaries on their borders as shown in the last 70 years.  ALL these situations were NOT encountered in war time either.  Russia is a neighbor, not a friend.  US presence in Europe is also helpful to European geopolitical perceptions of security.
 
There is hardly a chance of western-central Europe entering into some Christian coalition, as Russia under the Orthodox Czars was viewed pretty much the same as under the USSR.
 
3)  From the standpoint of NATO, without the US, NATO is quite meaningless.  So, what is the assessment of US interests in her presence in Europe, both after WW II and ongoing?
 
Europe remaining a fractured political presence, without military forces that can challenge the US, is in the geopolitical interests of the Anglo-North American maritime powers.  It is just a geopolitical reality.  The United States has zero interest in Europe consolidating to the point that it can be a threat to US interests.  Not that that seems likely in any sense in the forseeable future.
 
This has nothing to do with friendship, cultural ties or ancestral attachments.  This is geopolitics.  Both Germany, and later Russia had to be destroyed or contained militarily for US interests to be served.  Once those ends had been achieved, Europe had to be controlled so that neither Germany nor Russia gained control over the entire continent.
 
The Cold War conflict wound up being substantially diverted to other geographies after NATO in the 1950s finally consolidated US hegemony in western Europe.
 
You don't see US troops pulling out, and they will not any time soon.
 
       


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 23-Jun-2008 at 00:43
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Jun-2008 at 07:24
Russia, Ukraine and NATO - desperate triangle

...But what consequences will Russia face if Ukraine joins NATO? They could be broken up into several categories.

First, it will encounter military consequences. Tensions on Russia's western borders will rapidly go up. At present, NATO's tactical aircraft can reach Moscow in about an hour. Their flying time would be reduced to 20-25 minutes. The NATO forces would increase by several divisions, 300 to 350 combat aircraft, and 10 to 12 surface ships. This would further increase the already big gap in NATO and Russia's military potentials.

Political consequences would be closely linked with the military ones. Tensions between Russia and the West would escalate; and the political climate, which already leaves much to be desired, would finally slide to the worst times of the Cold War. Confrontation in Europe would be tense, but its front would move closer to the former Soviet territory.

Russia has already sustained economic losses because of Kiev's flirtation with NATO. Its defense industry has to downgrade cooperation with its western neighbor and gradually move to Russia the production of spare parts for military hardware, which were previously made in Ukraine, or develop their counterparts. The range of this hardware is rather broad - electronic components, missile, aircraft, ship and tank engines, as well as different auxiliary equipment. If Ukraine joins NATO, such cooperation will end once and for all...

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080623/111792916.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-Jun-2008 at 00:06
Ukraine, realistically, will probably wind up in the Russian orbit again.  It is possible, though not necessary, that Ukraine will become part of a Russian state once more.  Other than that, economic pressures are more the issue between the two countries.  Ukraine might have to go along with Russian agendas because she has no choice.  Russia's influence may not have to be increased through military action.
 
Ukraine as a NATO member (as with Georgia) would rightly be seen by Russia as a strategic threat to Russian interests.  The benefits to the West would be minimal at best, so it is unlikely these states will become parts of NATO.  The western powers are as unlikely to get into it with Russia over Ukraine's status as were France and Britain over Czechoslovakia in the 1930s.  Nothing could be done for them, nor could it be for Ukraine.
 
Geopolitically, the Ukraine has been seen as a large part of that Eurasian Heartland, whose domination is key to great power resources.
 
  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jul-2008 at 07:01

U.S. says Lithuania has agreed to consider hosting missile shield


WASHINGTON, July 2 (RIA Novosti) - United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said that Lithuania has agreed to consider hosting a missile interceptor base if the U.S. deal with Poland falls through.

Poland has taken a tough stance in the missile talks with the U.S., demanding that Washington upgrade the country's air defense systems as a condition for agreeing to station 10 interceptor missiles on its territory. Russia opposes the plans as a threat to its security and the nuclear deterrence system.

After Gates's meeting with Lithuanian Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas on Tuesday, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said: "The Lithuanian prime minister indicated that his government was willing to consider hosting the interceptors, and for that the secretary expressed his appreciation."

"Our position remains the same: our preference is to work out a deal with the Poles. But prudent planning requires that we simultaneously look at backups, if necessary. Lithuania would geographically serve as a good alternative," the spokesman said

Ex-Soviet Lithuania joined the European Union and NATO in 2004.

Washington says interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic are needed as protection from possible attacks by "rogue" states.

State Department spokesman Tom Casey told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S. remains hopeful that a deal with Poland can be reached in the near future.

"We've had these conversations for a long time, and I think you'd see a resolution of this somewhere in the coming days. But whether that's in a week or two weeks, I'm not really in a position to say," he said.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080702/112767972.html


Seems that USA is using Lithuania as leverage to put pressure on Poland to agree to host missile bases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jul-2008 at 17:53
Poland is used to the role of the party with less leverage.
 
Both these states remain vulnerable, and will remain minor players in the European zone of conflict between West (US) and East (Russia).
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Jul-2008 at 09:00
Poland, U.S. agree on missile shield terms
http://en.rian.ru/world/20080703/

It appears that USA's Lithuania bargaining trick paid off and Poland has agreed to the missile base deal.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Jul-2008 at 07:04
Georgia, Washington and Moscow: a Nuclear Geopolitical Poker Game

The Western media has either ignored the growing tensions in the strategic Caucasus region or has intimated, as suggested by Condoleeza Rice, that the entire conflict is being caused by Moscow’s silly support of "breakaway" republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In reality, a quite different chess game is being played in the region, one which has the potential to detonate a major escalation of tensions between Moscow and NATO...

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9564
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 13:44
Well, Russia is even now attacking the eastern European lands, as shown in the propaganda campaigns planned for 2010. I can't link you to the article (well, I can but it's in estonian: http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/article.php?id=19306104 ) but why on earth is, Russia celebrating the 300th anniversary of conquering Estonia if estonia is not a part of it anymore? Yet, we are a part of Nato. So, Russia shows candies in one hand and strikes with an axe from the other. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 16:15
Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

why on earth is, Russia celebrating the 300th anniversary of conquering Estonia if estonia is not a part of it anymore?


Maybe Russia don't like Estonia in NATO.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 16:50
But it isn't it's decision. It's the decision of each sovereign state and when Russia says she doesn't like it, even indirectly, isn't that an assault on the validity of the sovereignity of every state?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 23:05
The Russians see it differently.  The message sent is that Estonia was a part of Russia far longer than she has been (and was between the WWs) independent.  I don't think the Baltic states are as strategically important for Russia as before, but Russian pride has been wounded since the demise of the USSR, and they want to remind others who is the biggest bad ass on the block.
 
Especially under the Putin government, NATO presence so close to historical Great Russia is an affront.  As in the recent past, the subliminal message to be received is that Russia is capable (she won't, but she is capable) of swallowing Estonia much more easily than when she took it from Sweden.
 
Russia will lose few opportunities to remind east European states that they are currently "independent" because it is not at this time in Russian interests to exert dominance over those states.  Such dominance does not necessarily have to be military either.  At some time in the future, that may change again.
 
Actually, considering continental Europe's position since the Second World War, almost all those continental states have been dominated by either Russia or the by the US.  International alignments have been a function of who was more geographically dominant at the moment. 
 
Estonia, or Hungary, or Poland for that matter have little leverage in most matters of foreign affairs.  The West (NATO) is not going to go to war over any of those states, and Russia knows that.
 
  


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 14-Jul-2008 at 23:10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Jul-2008 at 23:37
Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

Well, Russia is even now attacking the eastern European lands, as shown in the propaganda campaigns planned for 2010. I can't link you to the article (well, I can but it's in estonian: http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/eesti/article.php?id=19306104 ) but why on earth is, Russia celebrating the 300th anniversary of conquering Estonia if estonia is not a part of it anymore? Yet, we are a part of Nato. So, Russia shows candies in one hand and strikes with an axe from the other. 
 
Confused What???
 
Why on Earth would Russia celebrate the conquest of Estonia?   What a stupid hoax !!!
Another idiotic example of the Anti-Russian hysteria. The author of the article had too much vodka before creating this piece of art.
 
Despite the whole idea doesn't make sense since there was no any Estonian state until 1918.


Edited by Sarmat12 - 14-Jul-2008 at 23:41
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jul-2008 at 14:41

Doesn't make sense for you perhaps, it does for Medvedjev. 

Pikeshot, that's true (US won't go to war for us) and that's exactly why the Russians can be openly hostile towards Eastern European states which are in NATO. They Russians have little to fear from anyone in that area.. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jul-2008 at 15:35
Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

Pikeshot, that's true (US won't go to war for us)


What about Kosovo war?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sarmat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jul-2008 at 18:40
Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

Doesn't make sense for you perhaps, it does for Medvedjev. 

Pikeshot, that's true (US won't go to war for us) and that's exactly why the Russians can be openly hostile towards Eastern European states which are in NATO. They Russians have little to fear from anyone in that area.. 

 
Give me more sources which say that Russia is going to celebrate the "conquest of Estonia." I tried really hard and found nothing in the Russian mass media.
 
Would you believe me if I show you a publication in unknown language which says that Estonia is celebrating the conquest of Russia?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Jul-2008 at 23:01
Originally posted by Bankotsu Bankotsu wrote:

Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

Pikeshot, that's true (US won't go to war for us)


What about Kosovo war?
 
If you mean Bosnia (?), there is a big difference between Serbia and Russia as adversaries.
 
I have made my views known in other threads about US involvement in the Balkans.  That was a Bill Clinton-driven US credibility issue.  It had nothing to do with US vital interests.
 
The US did not intervene over Germany in 1953; Hungary in 1956; Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Poland in the 1980s.....Those were parts of the Soviet sphere of influence, and were not involved with US vital interests.  Greece and Turkey in the 1940s; Iran in the 1950s were different matters.  So were Korea and Afghanistan. 
 
The US has become rather stuck with the Balkans as Europe continues to dodge responsibility for the region.  If the US will pay the feight, and take the heat, why bother?  Europe has been riding that horse for the last 60 years.
 
One intervenes where one's vital interests are involved.  The Mediterranean since the middle 1970s, and the Baltic, are European areas of vital interest, not ours.  Who is going to war over Hungary or Estonia? 
 
  


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 15-Jul-2008 at 23:02
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 05:42
Originally posted by pikeshot1600 pikeshot1600 wrote:

 
If you mean Bosnia (?), there is a big difference between Serbia and Russia as adversaries.


I mean 1999 Kosovo war. There was a conflict between Russia and USA over the war.
Russia was against the war. USA wanted to bomb.

There was also some conflict over russian troops deployment.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/1999/aug1999/clrk-a04.shtml


Quote The US did not intervene over Germany in 1953; Hungary in 1956; Czechoslovakia in 1968 or Poland in the 1980s.


But that was during cold war.

Now we are not in cold war.

The politics changed.


Edited by Bankotsu - 16-Jul-2008 at 06:41
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jul-2008 at 13:51

We are, Pikeshot, hopefully, if the situation demands it.

Sarmat, perhaps you have to look deeper. I trust our newsservice rather well... check the national budget for 2010 if you can... if nothing's there, I'll believe you. 

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