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Forum LockedThe long-term geopolitcal fallout?

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: The long-term geopolitcal fallout?
    Posted: 22-Feb-2009 at 03:22
Originally posted by edgewaters

Originally posted by Parnell

I don't think we'll ever see a return to the far right.

Not the far right of the past, perhaps.

But groups don't always have to be electorally succesful to get their policies across, sometimes getting the other parties to steal platform planks works as well.

example from Australia was far right Pauline Hanson politics being denounced by our illustrious PM Howard, but seeing how they touched on our underlying xenophobia, adopted parts of it via policy for himself and cynically sold it in the next election as the strong and safe option. Thing is that was when times were good. Whats going to happen when the jobs go, the 'skills shortage' is over?

Originally posted by Al Jassas


This thing is serious and it can easily develope. Muslims in europe don't differ from the maistream european society yet you will always here some guy caling for forced integration for people who are already well integrated.
 
Al-Jassas


FFS, I wanted to discuss the bigger political implications of the financial crisis not a why the 'west hates Islam', we have enough of those threads. Dont mix it up Al Jassas, that topic is not related to the economic crisis.




Edited by Leonidas - 22-Feb-2009 at 03:24
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Feb-2009 at 12:43
I though i'll add this post to add context to the polictical talk, I'm not sure anyone will be strong enough to take advantage of this, though nationalism will rise. I think we should look at the 30's for some inspiration.

Europe context

snapshot


http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,1436798,00.jpg

"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker told a luncheon of economists and investors at Columbia University.
Link


 Roll call of countries in serious trouble or in deep deep sh..
  • Estonia
  • Latvia
  • Ireland
  • Ukraine (politically split, economically weak, export dependent)
  • Hungary (took out mortgages in Euro's and Sws francs - the Florin got crunched and now has the lenders and lendees)
  • Poland (similar to hungary)
  • Greece (banks over extended into the Balkans, weak economy and huge pensions liabilities..etc)
  • Austria (levergaed into Eastern europe )

creeping in
  • russia
  • Italy
  • Spain (bubble bubble toil and trouble)

Defaults what will be the impacts?
The market prices risk of default at a country level by the interest charged by CDS's - or credit default swaps over their debt. After Lehman everything went up, judging from the market, amongst the emrging markets; the ukriane is toast, russia is next while turkey which was always considered riskier is no surpased by hungary and poland.


DBS

Ok the EU is in trouble, Russia is in trouble and the USA is in trouble. What can happen now? its a relative game, so should we wait for the dust of this collapse to settle?


read

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12339
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4648
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13144925&source=hptextfeature
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/19/globalrecession-marketturmoil



Edited by Leonidas - 22-Feb-2009 at 12:50
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Feb-2009 at 13:56
Hello Leo
 
My post is actually relevant to the thread. The rise of anti-muslim feeling in europe coincides with the rise of anti-immigration based right wing parties and all this is related to the current finicial crisis.
 
Immigrants come almost exclusively from muslim countries. Crime within immigrants in some places is quite high and this is used by right wing parties to link them all up and blame the crisis, or at least some aspects of it on the muslim population of europe. While the cirsis might end the campaign of right wing parties will not.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Feb-2009 at 14:07
Originally posted by Al Jassas

Hello Leo
 
My post is actually relevant to the thread. The rise of anti-muslim feeling in europe coincides with the rise of anti-immigration based right wing parties and all this is related to the current finicial crisis.
 
Immigrants come almost exclusively from muslim countries. Crime within immigrants in some places is quite high and this is used by right wing parties to link them all up and blame the crisis, or at least some aspects of it on the muslim population of europe. While the cirsis might end the campaign of right wing parties will not.
 
Al-Jassas
 
This attitude is close to hijacking the thread for purposes other than discussing geopolitics.  Immigrants into and among European countries are not factors in state interest policies that impact vital interests on a geographic scale. 
 
Leo's point about us not needing another thread about why the West hates Islam is well taken.  We do not need another about why Islam hates the West either.
 
If the thread degenerates in that regard, it will be moved to Current Affairs where it can be better accomodated.  Or, someone might just close it.
 
  
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Feb-2009 at 14:39
Hello to you all
 
This is the last time I will explain myself so please understand.
 
I said nothing about the "west" hating Islam or the opposite. I just merely suggested that the rise in anti-immigration and anti-Islamic policies within certain parts of the political spectrum of european politics is fueled in part by the financial crisis. That is all.
 
bus since you are insisting on discussing pure geopolitical fallouts here is my contribution. I think we might actually see a collapse in certain states and them turning into failed states particularly in the Balkans. This may actually lead to a renewal of the conflict. The economic conditions in former Yoguslavia are appaling to say the least. zero growth, almost 50% unemployment, ultranationalists gaining the upper hand. Stability even in some countries though to be quite stable like Greece is under question. Although it is quite early to say what will happen the Balkans with all its troubles must be viewed with interest.
 
Al-Jassas 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22-Feb-2009 at 14:55

Al Jassas,

I am not trying to jump on you, but this IS a subforum about geopolitics.  I don't see the relative importance of social or internal political factors in determining state interest policies predicated on vital interests.  Those interests are the same whether economies are good or bad.

Failed "states" have tended not to address any interests other than those of the criminal enterprises which always become the most influential.  Thus far, the criminal enterprises diffuse both resources and attention and just compete with one another internally for the most part.  

  



Edited by pikeshot1600 - 22-Feb-2009 at 15:04
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13-Mar-2009 at 13:19
I've been concerned about three impacts,
  1. The political fallout in Europe (EU), impacts to that structure
  2. impact of economic stress on less politically robust autocracies like Russia.
  3. Another angle of thought is the Sino-US balance of power.
In my life time China has changed from an agrarian based communist backwater into a economic heavy weight. But my god, these latest comments from the PRC have left many questions open. They are hinting in diversifying their investments away from US bonds, which if true leaves the US potentially short of $$ in their up and coming 2 trill debt program. I sense a big shift is about to happen and I am not sure the implications and risks have been fully appreciated by the market.

“President Obama and his new government have adopted a series of measures to deal with the financial crisis. We have expectations as to the effects of these measures,” Mr. Wen said. “We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.”

 He called on the United States to “maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”
NYT


Edited by Leonidas - 13-Mar-2009 at 13:23
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Post Options Post Options   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14-Mar-2009 at 14:01
Before we get too hung up on "the Apolcalypse," it is important to remember that the very recent incident of Chinese vessels shadowing a US navy ship resulted in a small military controversy.  One way to divert attention from this, and to humiliate the US, is to call into question the financial viability of US debt.
 
Whose bonds are they going to buy instead?....Venezuela?  Sudan?  Russia?  I don't think so.  This is politics, not finance.  The threat of China selling off US bonds is ludicrous.  If they are not worth holding, who will they sell them to?  China needs the interest income to create more toxic waste dumps and to anesthetize a billion paupers.  Wink
 
 
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 14-Mar-2009 at 14:06
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Mar-2009 at 06:51
Originally posted by pikeshot1600

Before we get too hung up on "the Apolcalypse," it is important to remember that the very recent incident of Chinese vessels shadowing a US navy ship resulted in a small military controversy.  One way to divert attention from this, and to humiliate the US, is to call into question the financial viability of US debt.
 
Whose bonds are they going to buy instead?....Venezuela?  Sudan?  Russia?  I don't think so.  This is politics, not finance.  The threat of China selling off US bonds is ludicrous.  If they are not worth holding, who will they sell them to?  China needs the interest income to create more toxic waste dumps and to anesthetize a billion paupers.  Wink

remember the spy plane issue over the south china sea when Bush first came in? i think this is a similar test of Obama. He should stand up on this, south china sea is to vital to be owned by any one power.

The bond issue has been bubbling along in the background. I have heared chatter via private channels that all the bond holders (Arab, Japanese, Chinese) are very nervous. Who is the first to flinch will kill the other holders. My quoted comment was the first time some one just said it in public. The Chinese are just stating they want to diversify. That is, they will pair back the T Bills purchases. not stop it. I dont blame them.

I asked the question to a bond analyst ;where is all this new money going to come from? He couldnt answer it. Its not only the US but the AUS, UK & other EU countries. Everyone is launching massive amounts of government bonds at the same time.

 You mentioned interest income what the yield on the various T bills? AFAIK after inflation your in the negative, these are only good for capital preservation at this point in time. The other risk for the holders; is currency related and that long term interest rate which is expected to increase. Both will erode foreign investor's original capital. No one can be confident the US dollar will remain high. The printing press is about top get cranked up, so that shortage today can be quickly and inadvertently turned into excess. Then inflation, raising rates - just to much risk in the one position.

Considering the US is about to leverage up in eye watering amounts, this foreign anxiety could make things pretty tricky for them. Also consider that the PRC is about to spend a massive on themselves, rather than deposit in the US treasury.

The question is; if the binding bear grip the two powers have can be loosened - if the Chinese can stimulate their own economy (without the help of the once all powerful US consumer) - will this creditor/debtor "MAD" situation continue (ie - stability) or can they screw the US in the near term? I think if they can channel their money internally and save themselves (decouple) you could be screwed. 



Edited by Leonidas - 15-Mar-2009 at 06:55
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Post Options Post Options   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15-Mar-2009 at 12:10
Originally posted by Leonidas


I asked the question to a bond analyst ;where is all this new money going to come from? He couldnt answer it.
 
Same place all fiat money comes from ultimately. Thin air.
 
The central bank just credits the government with $x billion dollars and debits its counter-account (treasury holdings). Hey presto.
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Never believe anything until it has been officially denied - Sir Humphrey Appleby, 1984.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18-Mar-2009 at 11:18
They were expecting the Chinese to step up with the money, but printing money is something they have been talking about. Risky business that is, at the end of the day the people pay via inflation (tax) and/or high interest rates if and when the artificial caps are lifted.

Just came back from a one day investment conference, EU break up was raised as real possibility in the next few years. Good news - seems the US is advanced in the downturn, bad news is - Europe has more to come, Australia as well.
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