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Forum LockedThe future of War?

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    Posted: 23-Dec-2008 at 18:11
What will be the future of warfare i.e. the equipment, the men, the forces and the causes of conflict. I'm just looking for speculation from a military point of view and a political point of view?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote IDonT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Dec-2008 at 18:28
Military:
 
1.)  Network Centric warfare.  The side that has information dominance will win.  The military hardware will more or less remain the same, its the way they are connected with each other that will change.  Knowing when and where the hit the enemy will be vital in winning the war.
2.)  The rise of unmanned vehicles in the combat. 
3.)  With enhanced weapon accuracy will shift equipment away from large area of effect munitions to smaller warhead weaponry.  (no need destroy the whole building when you can destroy just the floor the target is in) 
 
 
Causes of war will pretty much stay the same (resources, hatred, territory, etc).  It's human nature.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Dec-2008 at 19:53
Depends what kind of war you're talking about - minor local conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan, or serious large scale wars. Really serious wars, comparable to the world wars, will go nuclear pretty well from the start. The trimmings won't matter.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-Dec-2008 at 20:13

Hello to you all

 
The current trend is a more technology dependent war with what as IDont referred to as information war. Unfortunately as the conflict in Iraq told us, a 20$ trigger that you can buy let alone steal from your local hardware store will overcome any technological gizmo you put even if you spend 5 or 6 billion to solve the problem.
 
I agree with Graham that until now we did not see the full potential that modern weapons can go to so we have to waite for a world war to know how far man reached in the art of killing himself.
 
 
 
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Iv'e always found this quote true and you all probably know it by Albert Einstein. "I don't know what weapons will be used in WWIII but I do know WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Aster Thrax Eupator Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 02:29
I reckon that the essential nature of war will always remain the same - as Plato stated - "as long as there is man, there will be war", and unless we see some radical sociological or cultural change - which, let's face it, hasn't ever been radical enough to change the essential nature of mankind's warlike mentality - I doubt it will change. As others above have stipulated, what will change is the technological basis on which it will be fought, and from that basis, it may become so technologically advanced that warfare as we know it changes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 02:42
Originally posted by Aster Thrax Eupator Aster Thrax Eupator wrote:

I reckon that the essential nature of war will always remain the same - as Plato stated - "as long as there is man, there will be war", and unless we see some radical sociological or cultural change - which, let's face it, hasn't ever been radical enough to change the essential nature of mankind's warlike mentality - I doubt it will change. As others above have stipulated, what will change is the technological basis on which it will be fought, and from that basis, it may become so technologically advanced that warfare as we know it changes.


You have a point with that war will continue as we know it forever, however during the course of this century the methods and fields it is employed in will change. For one the internet will become a battlefield of warfare it's self. In addition WMD's and  will become more diverse and widespread along with the likely hood that they will end up in the hands of non-state actors.

Also during this century I think we will see another world war, although one that is less devastating both in terms of human lives and destruction. 

It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darius of Parsa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 03:15
Originally posted by Kevin Kevin wrote:

Originally posted by Aster Thrax Eupator Aster Thrax Eupator wrote:

I reckon that the essential nature of war will always remain the same - as Plato stated - "as long as there is man, there will be war", and unless we see some radical sociological or cultural change - which, let's face it, hasn't ever been radical enough to change the essential nature of mankind's warlike mentality - I doubt it will change. As others above have stipulated, what will change is the technological basis on which it will be fought, and from that basis, it may become so technologically advanced that warfare as we know it changes.


You have a point with that war will continue as we know it forever, however during the course of this century the methods and fields it is employed in will change. For one the internet will become a battlefield of warfare it's self. In addition WMD's and  will become more diverse and widespread along with the likely hood that they will end up in the hands of non-state actors.

Also during this century I think we will see another world war, although one that is less devastating both in terms of human lives and destruction

It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.




I doubt it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 06:30
Originally posted by Darius of Parsa Darius of Parsa wrote:

Originally posted by Kevin Kevin wrote:

Originally posted by Aster Thrax Eupator Aster Thrax Eupator wrote:

I reckon that the essential nature of war will always remain the same - as Plato stated - "as long as there is man, there will be war", and unless we see some radical sociological or cultural change - which, let's face it, hasn't ever been radical enough to change the essential nature of mankind's warlike mentality - I doubt it will change. As others above have stipulated, what will change is the technological basis on which it will be fought, and from that basis, it may become so technologically advanced that warfare as we know it changes.


You have a point with that war will continue as we know it forever, however during the course of this century the methods and fields it is employed in will change. For one the internet will become a battlefield of warfare it's self. In addition WMD's and  will become more diverse and widespread along with the likely hood that they will end up in the hands of non-state actors.

Also during this century I think we will see another world war, although one that is less devastating both in terms of human lives and destruction

It will certainly be interesting to see how this plays out.




I doubt it.


Barring the use by irrational religious fanatics, I don't think the widespread use of WMD's  would be likely given that it would be meet with some form of equal retribution by the other side.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 11:12
Only irrational fanatics (possibly but not necessarily religious) would start another world war. So rational considerations go out the window.
 
As far as I know France and Britain are still committed to a first-strike nuclear defence policy and have been for 50 years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 17:36
Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

Only irrational fanatics (possibly but not necessarily religious) would start another world war. So rational considerations go out the window.
 
As far as I know France and Britain are still committed to a first-strike nuclear defence policy and have been for 50 years.


That is indeed likely however, the next World War is just as likely if not more so to begin with the actions of a major power like Russia or China.

But still the actions of fanatics is just as likely and I see your point with that.

However I would even justify that many fanatics are suicidal enough to use WMD's in a way s to provoke gurrenteed retribution with the same types of weapons.


Edited by Kevin - 24-Dec-2008 at 17:39
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darius of Parsa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24-Dec-2008 at 18:32
The United States and Russia are growing further and further apart. It will start when the rubber band between the two ends breaks. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote IDonT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Dec-2008 at 03:16
Originally posted by Darius of Parsa Darius of Parsa wrote:

The United States and Russia are growing further and further apart. It will start when the rubber band between the two ends breaks. 


I doubt it.  Russia is not as powerful at it used to be.  Its system of alliance has fallen.  Its military a shell of its high point in the 80's.


The Russia of 1989's could wipe the floor of the Russia of 2009
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Truthisnotrelitive Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Dec-2008 at 09:23
so if not russia, then who is puling on the other end of the rubber band? china? i doubt it. they're going to have to have some serious trade agreement fallouts with western nations before that'll happen.


not that i'm sugesting russia is a curent threat, although historically their goverment systems do seem to have totalitarianism tendancies.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Dec-2008 at 09:39

There will be two principal kinds of conflict in the future.

A population (with paramilitaries, guerrillas, etc) versus a government military force.

And two (or more) populations fighting each other with irregulars, guerrillas, paramilitaries, terrorists, etc. Usually along ethnic or religious lines.

Irregular forces associated with populations will favour light, cheap, easily manufactured weapons of all kinds - from AK-47s, RPGs, homemade mortars, basic rockets, etc.

Governments will maintain strong conventional forces, but there will be an increasing emphasis on small units and their equipment for land forces, and at sea, there will be an increasing emphasis on light, littoral capabilities. More and more nations will also want to acquire their own strategic airlift capability rather than renting from the US or Russia.

The days of conventional conflict between all but the smallest and poorest nations is over. Economies are too interconnected and much too dependant on global trade to even consider state vs state warfare.



Edited by edgewaters - 27-Dec-2008 at 09:47
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote IDonT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Dec-2008 at 12:07
Originally posted by edgewaters edgewaters wrote:

The days of conventional conflict between all but the smallest and poorest nations is over. Economies are too interconnected and much too dependant on global trade to even consider state vs state warfare.

Bingo!

As much as many hawks want to see a conflict between China or Russia against the western alliance, such a thing is no longer plausible.  The Chinese economy is so much interconnected with the US that a disruption would hurt both sides. 

One only goes to war when it has been decided that the cost of war is less than the fruits of victory.  With todays economic interdependency and nuclear weapons, the cost is higher than any fruits of victory.

Remember Sun Tzu's main lesson.  The goal of war is survival not victory.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Dec-2008 at 18:44
Flyingzone, what your wrote was said in 1914, when the worlds two mpost interconnected economies went to war (UK and germany). The economies were so interconnected that the German Battlecruisers used Parsons turbines made in Glasgow.
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote IDonT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-Dec-2008 at 21:51
Originally posted by Sparten Sparten wrote:

Flyingzone, what your wrote was said in 1914, when the worlds two mpost interconnected economies went to war (UK and germany). The economies were so interconnected that the German Battlecruisers used Parsons turbines made in Glasgow.
 
Didn't the Kaiser said that he regretted not reading Sun Tzu before WWI?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote edgewaters Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-Dec-2008 at 10:54
The interconnectedness of 1914 is not really comparable to the nature of globalized economies in 2008. They weren't even oil economies.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Darius of Parsa Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31-Dec-2008 at 16:37
Originally posted by Truthisnotrelitive Truthisnotrelitive wrote:

so if not russia, then who is puling on the other end of the rubber band? china? i doubt it. they're going to have to have some serious trade agreement fallouts with western nations before that'll happen.


not that i'm sugesting russia is a curent threat, although historically their goverment systems do seem to have totalitarianism tendancies.


China's people are going to revolt in the near future. There won't be a country left.
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