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Forum LockedNorth Korea has another nuclear test

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-May-2009 at 23:34
Originally posted by Dolphin Dolphin wrote:

Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:

Please live in the real world.

Ok, let's take this 'real world'. What would you, in the real world, do with North Korea?


I don't know frankly. But I don't think we can all just hold hands, sing kumbaya and throw our Nukes into recycling plants together, as one global family. Mankind is inherently evil. The world was hardly better off before Nuclear weapons, was it?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dolphin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-May-2009 at 23:55
So then it must boil down to the assertion that NK can't be trusted. With this in mind then, the only logical course of action would be to invade immediately and try to take out the regime before it develops fully. The problem with that is that it isn't realistic. It's hard to endorse the idea of sitting back and hoping that NK will cop on and not use their capabilities, especially if they eventually do, but nothing more than political pressure and sanctions (whatever use they would be) are realistic. Granted, the nuclear armament of NK is a global problem, but maybe this is less something the West has an obligation to stick its noses into at the moment. It's an almost impossible problem, but North Korea still has, in my opinion, the right to assert its entitlement to a nuclear arsenal, regardless of how aversive this may be to our eyes. Just like the development of nukes in other countries more politically responsive and diplomatic than NK was deemed justifiable as long as they were responsible and produced nukes under the guise of self-defence, NK can pursue their own ambitions up to this point, but not beyond it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-May-2009 at 23:58
Originally posted by Dolphin Dolphin wrote:

So then it must boil down to the assertion that NK can't be trusted. With this in mind then, the only logical course of action would be to invade immediately and try to take out the regime before it develops fully. The problem with that is that it isn't realistic. It's hard to endorse the idea of sitting back and hoping that NK will cop on and not use their capabilities, especially if they eventually do, but nothing more than political pressure and sanctions (whatever use they would be) are realistic. Granted, the nuclear armament of NK is a global problem, but maybe this is less something the West has an obligation to stick its noses into at the moment. It's an almost impossible problem, but North Korea still has, in my opinion, the right to assert its entitlement to a nuclear arsenal, regardless of how aversive this may be to our eyes. Just like the development of nukes in other countries more politically responsive and diplomatic than NK was deemed justifiable as long as they were responsible and produced nukes under the guise of self-defence, NK can pursue their own ambitions up to this point, but not beyond it.



I half agree with what you say. Its the idea that nukes are 'first come first serve' that wrecks my head. Fact of the matter is that NK already has Nukes. Its just a matter of how far they can send them. I'm really just arguing over whether 'anyone' is 'entitled' to develop them. Or that who has them is equally entitled to have them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-May-2009 at 17:14
Originally posted by Spartakus Spartakus wrote:

Originally posted by Leonidas Leonidas wrote:


as already mentioned, its not their troops or armour, certainly not their airforce or navy, that will be damaging its their artillery/rockets. If you have thousands of simple and cheap rockets ranged agianst Soul that can all be launch in a very short time, you can take out that city no matter how well it is defended. You really can right off SK if a war starts, no matter how many AEGIS ships they can build.



But how are you going to protect your artillery without air power? The USSR had the biggest artillery force before WWII, yet, as history has proven, this was not sufficient enough. Artillery forces without umbrella are just sitting ducks.




bro..read this (my bolding)

Quote

If North Korea attacked first or if its war machine wasn't seriously damaged by a U.S. strike aimed at destroying its nuclear weapons program, in the first two or three weeks of fighting that nation could use its awesome firepower to leave more than 1 million people dead or wounded. Most would be South Korean troops and civilians, but thousands of U.S. troops stationed here would also likely die, the U.S. military estimates.

South Korean defenses could be pulverized for several hours by as many as 500,000 artillery rounds per hour from North Korean positions just 30 miles from Seoul. North Korea's 500 to 600 Scud missiles, many carrying chemical weapons, could pound targets across South Korea, and longer-range missiles could hit civilian and U.S. military targets as far away as Japan and possibly even America's West Coast.

"They certainly have the ability to deliver a devastating first blow, especially if there is no lead-in time for us," says Joseph Bermudez, author of a detailed book called "The Armed Forces of North Korea." "They could make a significant penetration into South Korea, no doubt about it."




http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/news/2003/030304-korean-war01.htm



Nk will lose but it will burn SK first
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zaitsev Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-May-2009 at 17:35
Indeed. One cannot argue that South Korea would stand a chance. South Korea would be pummelled and potentially occupied within days. I would prefer it never came down to a direct armed conflict here though. People like to talk what may or may not work in 'toppling the regime', but I don't see a reason to do that. Kim Jong Il may not be exactly a nice guy, but North Korea has not engaged in any direct military action since the Korean War and is unlikely to be the aggressor this time. Personally I think the best course of action is to leave well alone at this stage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sun Tzu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-May-2009 at 20:27
I agree with Zaitsez, NK would destroy SK if there was a war; of course the U.S. could defeat NK, but I really don't see any viable reason to enhance tensions between the U.S. and NK. They are similar to Iran whom I do not deem as a threat (maybe to stability in the Mid-East but not to National security). NK really has little to no hegenmony in the region and the biggest concern for the U.S. right now would be China If the U.S. wishes to maintain its dominance in the Western Pacific.

I just watched a show on C-SPAN talking about How China has publicly stated that they want to keep the U.S. out of the Western Pacific. They wish to build a Navy that can challenge our presence in the Far-East as well as our possessions and our allies.

Edited by Sun Tzu - 29-May-2009 at 20:28
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29-May-2009 at 20:42

North Korea having nuclear weapons isn't like other nations having them. The whole basis of the country is the violent reunification of the Korean pennisula based on Cold War ideologies that have long since died out almost everywhere else. The nation lives in a surrealistic dreamworld and is more than capable of taking actions that could precipitate a much wider conflict.

Jong-il is testing the new U.S. president and we're going to see what Obama is really made of over this. My guess is, if push does come to shove it's going to be very devastating for North Korea and possibly other nations in the region.
 
With any luck that nutjob Jong-il will die before his crazy overflows onto the rest of us.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote malizai_ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-May-2009 at 19:15
Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:

Its easy to wait things out in our comfertable houses in Dublin Emmet, quite another another if you are one of the millions living in Greater Seoul. I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be so ambivilent if you were South Korean!

If we're going to talk about morals, its a pointless to go backwards and point the finger at America. Vastly different times with two massive war machines (Germans and the Japanese) killing millions in Europe and Asia. And the use of Nukes in Japan wasn't a response to Pearl Harbour at all, it was a result of the deaths of thousands of American troops in a war they had pretty much won but which was been dragged out by a country which had pretty much lost. NOT that that is a justification for the use of the Bomb, but it does make it slightly less morally comfertable to be so against it.

Saying that 'anyone' can develop Nuclear weapons is nonsense. Especially for people so in favour of their disarmament. North Korea and the United States are not the same. They cannot be put on the same weighing scale on any stretch of the imagination - one is governed by a fanatic and evil aristocratic family, the other elected and representative of a free people. The world came out of the Cold War without having to use a Nuclear bomb, and the sole reason for that was mutually assured destruction (And the acronym MAD is very apt by the way)

Complete disarmament is also scarily naive - all it takes is one country to renege on the promise and all of a sudden we have a global dictatorship, with one group capable of annihilating the rest of the world without reprisal. Nukes have to be controlled. Just like chemicals, AK 47s and poison have to be controlled. We don't live in a nice fairy world where everyone just wants to get together for a nice cup of tea so as to put all these differences behind them.
 
What about the ambivalence shared by N.Koreans, who's hostile S.korean brother's belligerent military guarantors are nuclearly armed. Also if MAD is such an effective deterrent then all the more reason to be have the capability. It certainly seems more assuring than SAD, Singularly Assured Destruction, your own.
 
Now Parnell, it seems u have a habit of misreading or misapplying information supplied. Did i say total disarmament or "total nuclear disarmament" extending to "indiscriminate" weapons. Funnily if there was total disarmament in the all encompassing sense of the word, than how do assume someone would have the capability towards complete annihilation of another. I agree we don't live in a fairly world, nukes would attest to it.
 
Lead and others would follow.


Edited by malizai_ - 31-May-2009 at 02:13
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30-May-2009 at 20:15
Its a nice sentiment, but has no place in the real world. Thats all I was saying, with customary rhetorical flourish of course Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 01:53
Originally posted by Sun Tzu Sun Tzu wrote:

I agree with Zaitsez, NK would destroy SK if there was a war; of course the U.S. could defeat NK, but I really don't see any viable reason to enhance tensions between the U.S. and NK. They are similar to Iran whom I do not deem as a threat (maybe to stability in the Mid-East but not to National security). NK really has little to no hegenmony in the region and the biggest concern for the U.S. right now would be China If the U.S. wishes to maintain its dominance in the Western Pacific.

I just watched a show on C-SPAN talking about How China has publicly stated that they want to keep the U.S. out of the Western Pacific. They wish to build a Navy that can challenge our presence in the Far-East as well as our possessions and our allies.


I wouldn't say that the South Koreans don't sand a change against the North in a war, keep in mind most of the DPRK's military equipment for all services is seriously outdated. In addition the North Koreans are lacking the fuel to sustain much of their armoured and motorized forces as well as their air and much of their naval forces. Also some North Korean soldiers are starving and are poorly treated and they even had a mutiny among some units a few years ago.

Also keep in mind the South has had over 50 years to prepare for such an occasion and has put that time to good use building a well equipped, well motivated and disciplined, not to mention technologically endowed force. The South's society has also been well prepared for such a moment and the South in general could help the North off for sometime.

We also haven't mentioned the fact that the United States along with the possibility of other nations would come to South Korea's aid. With the US bringing it's very powerful military upon the North's forces.     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 08:22
Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:


Complete disarmament is also scarily naive - all it takes is one country to renege on the promise and all of a sudden we have a global dictatorship, with one group capable of annihilating the rest of the world without reprisal. Nukes have to be controlled.

Yes, but considering we already have a global dictatorship, can you blame the people who think they're going to be annihilated from trying to even the playing field?
Quote People like to talk what may or may not work in 'toppling the regime', but I don't see a reason to do that. Kim Jong Il may not be exactly a nice guy, but North Korea has not engaged in any direct military action since the Korean War and is unlikely to be the aggressor this time. Personally I think the best course of action is to leave well alone at this stage.

I agree, regardless of the Korean tendencies to go a little over the top, as long as you don't try to attack north korea there is nothing really to worry about. The only reason they have nukes is because people keep suggesting bombing them.
Originally posted by DukeC DukeC wrote:

The whole basis of the country is the violent reunification of the Korean pennisula based on Cold War ideologies that have long since died out almost everywhere else.

It never ceases to amaze me how you form such insular opinions
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 11:00
Is his 'insular' opinion incorrect though? Whether someone forms an opinion because its insular or external seems a little beyond the point...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 11:14
It has some basis in truth yes, but exactly the same can be said of South Korea and the US.
Both sides fear that the other will violently reunify the peninsular.

Its ludicrous to accuse North Korea for holding those opinions, when their actions are motivated by fear of those opinions, and while you are justifying that fear!

"Hey, North Korea looks too violent, lets bomb them for it!" - sound stupid to you?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 11:34
NK is paranoid not aggressive, they know they will get smoked into oblivion if they actaully attack so any aggression on their part is driven by fear not some idealogical belief

The word insular should be best applied to NK, since no one actaully wants to attack them. Its best to watch it slowly crumble and even Bush (of all people) realised that. Their bahovour is bizaarre and can only be described as a nation living in a parrallel universe.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 16:01
North Korea derives its rationale and doctrine from the brutality and interventionism it endured in the 50s at the hands of the same powers against whom it is pitched today... and judging by what it has seen in Iraq, nothing much has changed since those days, so its 'paranoia', as Leonidas puts it, is very solidly founded.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02-Jun-2009 at 16:46
Oh I really do feel very sorry for the poor Kim family who had to 'endure' interventionism in the 50s. Those poor aristocrats, probably put their ability to put a new swimming pool in their roof off by a decade or so.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Jun-2009 at 15:22
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

North Korea derives its rationale and doctrine from the brutality and interventionism it endured in the 50s at the hands of the same powers against whom it is pitched today... and judging by what it has seen in Iraq, nothing much has changed since those days, so its 'paranoia', as Leonidas puts it, is very solidly founded.
on something that happened 50 years ago? C'mon Vietnam is more worried over the PRC than the USA these days. move on, these guys need to get out more and see the world has progressed from the cold war, its not about idealogy just resources. NK cant even feed itself, there is nothing there for the US but a prickly pain in the arse legacy of the cold war. There is no rationale in thinking they will be attcked, this is NK thinking they are more important to the US than they really are. Delusions over logic.

 Iraq was an 'easy' target and a bad example, the US thinks twice over anything that can really bite back. NK is as hardened and intrenched an opponent can get. The US armed forces respect that, even cowboy Bush knew better.

 Think about it,  they know war condems SK and puts Japan at great harm.... then they have to face a very well drilled and motivated enemy that would need to be flushed out of every tunnel deep in those mountains. In the back ground is the danger of the PRC coming in and saving the day, robbing the US of a hard fought victory, agian. no way the US actaully understands containment is best for all involved.  Two allies and a very large portion of their forces are not worth a starving hedgehog that is lead by a irrelevant guy in a jump suit. they can stay in that hole for 100 years and it changes nothing for everyone else.

The main game is growing PRC power and resource (and assoc sea lane) security.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sun Tzu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Jun-2009 at 17:56
It's going to be interesting when the PRC builds its navy up, whether or not they are going to challenge the U.S. and if they are going to make a move on Taiwan, I also read a while back that they are also interested in Russia's Eastern territory for whatever reason I do not know.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03-Jun-2009 at 18:06
Originally posted by Leonidas Leonidas wrote:

on something that happened 50 years ago? C'mon Vietnam is more worried over the PRC than the USA these days. move on, these guys need to get out more and see the world has progressed from the cold war, its not about idealogy just resources. NK cant even feed itself, there is nothing there for the US but a prickly pain in the arse legacy of the cold war. There is no rationale in thinking they will be attcked, this is NK thinking they are more important to the US than they really are. Delusions over logic.

 Iraq was an 'easy' target and a bad example, the US thinks twice over anything that can really bite back. NK is as hardened and intrenched an opponent can get. The US armed forces respect that, even cowboy Bush knew better.

 Think about it,  they know war condems SK and puts Japan at great harm.... then they have to face a very well drilled and motivated enemy that would need to be flushed out of every tunnel deep in those mountains. In the back ground is the danger of the PRC coming in and saving the day, robbing the US of a hard fought victory, agian. no way the US actaully understands containment is best for all involved.  Two allies and a very large portion of their forces are not worth a starving hedgehog that is lead by a irrelevant guy in a jump suit. they can stay in that hole for 100 years and it changes nothing for everyone else.

The main game is growing PRC power and resource (and assoc sea lane) security.
 
No kidding eh, the war has been going on on the Korean Pennsiula for over 50 years(armistice notwithstanding) because the North is caught in some weird time warp. Time to move on.
 
It's about as relevant today as disco.
 
 


Edited by DukeC - 03-Jun-2009 at 18:07
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07-Jun-2009 at 23:09
Yeah, 50 years ago... and whose son rules N Korea today and was lived through that war? He will not budge, it's personal. He sees Korea as his own and the South as a proxy US entity as much now as it was then. Time to move on? Easy for us to say.

Parnell, the Kim family didn't have to endure much, millions upon millions of Koreans did, but if you would care to examine the motive behind the Korean war, you will see that it wa as ill founded as that of Vietnam and it needlessly cost millions of lives.  And it will be easy for you to say that had the US not invaded the whole of Korea would be under the same despotic style rule as we see today.   But that is BS, the communists would not have received so much support had the country not been under foreign attack and occupation.

There is no excuse for interventionism. It is barbarous, destructive and homocidal.  That rings as true for Korea as it did for Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.  
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