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Forum LockedNorth Korea has another nuclear test

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    Posted: 25-May-2009 at 07:00
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/24/nkorea.nuclear/index.html
 
This is surprising but then again not surprising given the unpredictability of the Kim Regime. However I'm thinking it is also posturing by Kim Jong-Il to ensure more internal support from North Korea's other ruling elites and perhaps this is somehow playing into the debate within the ruling circles of North Korea over who should succced Kim.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 08:17
This what happens when you concentrate on the Iranian nuclear program which needs at least 4 years to be completed and ignore the real threat that already existed and could have been avoided if Bush didn't appease NK.
 
In 2001 when he began to engage it NK was as far as Iran today in its program yet on his watch NK's program didn't just continue, it thrived with US assistance (the money that should have gone to food went to the nuclear program because of US food and drug aid). At the same time the US was preparing for war in Iraq.
 
Al-Jassas
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 12:59
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

This what happens when you concentrate on the Iranian nuclear program which needs at least 4 years to be completed and ignore the real threat that already existed and could have been avoided if Bush didn't appease NK.
 
In 2001 when he began to engage it NK was as far as Iran today in its program yet on his watch NK's program didn't just continue, it thrived with US assistance (the money that should have gone to food went to the nuclear program because of US food and drug aid). At the same time the US was preparing for war in Iraq.
 
Al-Jassas
 
 
we never seem to see eye to eye, but i mainly agree with this.Wink

They went after the wrong state,the NK are much much more dangerous and knee deep in nuke dirt/missile tech all the way back to the ME. They will sell it to whoever. They dont live there so they dont care who they help. While both countries seem to be ultra paranoid defensive, one can deal with Iran with the right approach. Iran would not sell such capabilty to no one. despite what the Hawks say.

NK on the other hand  is a living example of orwelian statehood, a bit woo hoo cooky and a ding dong failure on every count but for their military punch. We know almost nothing about them, except that NK is an absolute fortress (PRC in the shadows) which does make the US think twice -  so it can do such things as build a bomb and no one would know, let alone stop it.

 Bush is a twit.


Edited by Leonidas - 25-May-2009 at 13:01
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 14:14
And Obama is not much better, probably worse I would say.
 
On the issue, looks like they got trigger mechanism right this time, the Russkies are saying 10-20 KT, last time the trigger mech destroyed the core before it could get supercritical.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zaitsev Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 14:56
In the scheme of things, however, this test is rather irrelevant. The North Koreans were already at a point where it was probably, if untested, that they could deliver a sufficiently large device with reasonable accuracy within the region. This means that they had reached a point where they possessed a nuclear deterrent. How it progresses from their is extremely uncertain.

The North Koreans have been seeking international independence for some time. In many ways their nuclear program has been aimed at this goal. However, they are not free of China and rely on them strongly for economic support and political backing. This limits North Korea's strategic options in any aggressive act as China, while tolerant of internal nuclear development to a certain extent, could not afford to be associated with a war of aggression.

Likely at this stage there will be just pointless, and hypocritical, gibbering between North Korea and the US.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 17:46
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

This what happens when you concentrate on the Iranian nuclear program which needs at least 4 years to be completed and ignore the real threat that already existed and could have been avoided if Bush didn't appease NK.
 
In 2001 when he began to engage it NK was as far as Iran today in its program yet on his watch NK's program didn't just continue, it thrived with US assistance (the money that should have gone to food went to the nuclear program because of US food and drug aid). At the same time the US was preparing for war in Iraq.
 
Al-Jassas
 
 
 
I beg to differ as the DPRK is fairly contained geopolitically and alot of what is happening in North Korea is to ensure the survival of the Kim family Regime. Also unlike Iran the DPRK has no regional ambitions outside the Korean Peninsula, and even then it does not have the abilty to carry them out. So overall if you look at things Iran poses a much larger threat to world peace at the present time then North Korea.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote es_bih Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 19:02
What kind of threat? They have no extra territorial ambitions that I know off. Aside from the BS that Israel tags to their name...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 19:12
DNK is ruled by a pigmy madman who will sell technology to the highest bidder. He done it before when he sold rocket technology and will do it again with nuclear bombs.
 
Iran saw what happened to Iraq and wants the program as a deterrant and it never did something mad or unexpected. It will never sell technology to its friends let alone their enemies and is willing to cooperate once its interests are taken into account.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SearchAndDestroy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 21:40
Japan seems pretty heated about this too. China has come out to say that they are totally against N.Korea's move. I think the international community believes this to be far more serious than Iran's issue.
 
Can this situation bring about war? N.Korea I think is going to use this new found power to blackmail the Global community. They have tested a rocket recently that was fired over Japan. North Korea wants to have a card up their sleeve that they can use. I think we have alot more to worry about with them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zaitsev Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-May-2009 at 04:03
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

DNK is ruled by a pigmy madman who will sell technology to the highest bidder. He done it before when he sold rocket technology and will do it again with nuclear bombs.


You don't need to sell nuclear technology. Contrary to popular belief, constructing a nuclear device is not particularly complex by modern standards. Why many people do not possess nuclear weaponry is because of treaties and the exorbitant cost of enrichment. The equipment and expertise involved is just hard to come by, and expensive to arrange.
 
Quote Iran saw what happened to Iraq and wants the program as a deterrant and it never did something mad or unexpected. It will never sell technology to its friends let alone their enemies and is willing to cooperate once its interests are taken into account.


Actually that's likely a very small part of the issue. Iran knows that it cannot afford to rely on oil reserves over the long run and is preparing for the future. Iran knows exactly how reliant on oil it currently is, and knows that over the long run this will be very bad. They have long sought independence from oil reserves, and this is the logical step. The reason there's a big deal about the issue is because Iran is not on good terms with the US or Israel, making any attempt to procure nuclear energy an evil attempt at world domination.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DukeC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26-May-2009 at 18:41

North Korea- the wailing brat of the world: "Pay attention to me or I'll throw a nuclear tantrum."

They should have an replacement policy for wars..."Yes, I'd like to exchange the invasion of Iraq for something more in a North Korea if you have it."

Edited by DukeC - 26-May-2009 at 18:46
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 02:27
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

DNK is ruled by a pigmy madman who will sell technology to the highest bidder. He done it before when he sold rocket technology and will do it again with nuclear bombs.
 
Iran saw what happened to Iraq and wants the program as a deterrant and it never did something mad or unexpected. It will never sell technology to its friends let alone their enemies and is willing to cooperate once its interests are taken into account.
 
Al-Jassas
 
I seriously doubt Kim=Jong-Il would sell nuclear weapons to anyone as he woul be opening himself up to a US or dare I even say Chinese response to such a prospect.
 
With Iran though they have been seeking nuclear weapons for a while even before the American led invasion of Iraq. In addition they have had chemical and biological weapons since the Iran-Iraq War.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 05:42
Hello Kevin
 
If you think that Kim won't sell technology to highest bidder than you really don't know anything. He sold middle and long range rockets to Iran and 6 other nations in the mideast. He helped Iran build its nuclear program and he did the same for Syria.
 
Kim has the bomb dude as well as the means to diver it to the US, what would the US do?
China has shown time and time again that it has no interest in pressuring NK and actually I won't be surprised that NK did what it did because of chinese green light.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zaitsev Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 15:15
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Kim has the bomb dude as well as the means to diver it to the US, what would the US do?


Nothing. Absolutely nothing of any significance. The US will never pursue a strong aggressive line with nations it legitimately believes possess a nuclear arsenal and the means and will to use it. A strong reason why the 'WMD justification' for the Iraq war was such baloney.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Constantine XI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 16:02
We do have the chance to set a precedent here. We can bomb them into submission. Maybe it won't destroy their regime, but we can destroy their facilities they use to create these monsters, and that is enough. No invasion, no occupation, just a nice bombing campaign.

This crisis is actually an opportunity. The US can prove that it is willing to utterly ravage the infrastructure of any small-medium nation which seeks to acquire nuclear weapons. This, more than anything, would serve as a substantial deterrant to any small to medium sized power hoping to acquire these weapons.

Nuclear profliferation is bad, but nuclear profileration among non major powers is far worse. Larger powers have the conventional military resources to defend themselves or at the very least keep their elites in power.

Non major powers sometimes do not, and that makes them far more prone to either using these weaponds or selling the technological capabilities to other nations. For this reason, Israel should never have been allowed to get the bomb. Despite the fact they do have it, that is no reason to allow North Korea to play with it. Unless they agree to halt their military nuclear capabilities, bomb them.

They can't retaliate against US bombing raids, and such an action will at last be the first concrete step towards limiting the spread of nuclear armaments. It is both a practical and pragmatic approach.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dolphin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 16:27
How dare North Korea use a nuclear bomb! They clearly aren't sane enough to use it responsibly, like the rest of the world apparently is. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 16:44

Dare cross their borders even by mistake and NK will be marching in downtown Seoul before you could say Wagga Wagga.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 21:06
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Dare cross their borders even by mistake and NK will be marching in downtown Seoul before you could say Wagga Wagga.
More likely flatten Seoul with artillery fire.  I dont think the North Korean Army is going to be marching anywhere as their equipment is antiquated and running on empty gas tanks. My guess is that the most devoted troops whose units have actual training budgets are not in the infantry or armour, but rather heavy artillery and missiles.  


Edited by Cryptic - 27-May-2009 at 21:08
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27-May-2009 at 22:02
Originally posted by Constantine XI Constantine XI wrote:

We do have the chance to set a precedent here. We can bomb them into submission. Maybe it won't destroy their regime, but we can destroy their facilities they use to create these monsters, and that is enough. No invasion, no occupation, just a nice bombing campaign.

This crisis is actually an opportunity. The US can prove that it is willing to utterly ravage the infrastructure of any small-medium nation which seeks to acquire nuclear weapons. This, more than anything, would serve as a substantial deterrant to any small to medium sized power hoping to acquire these weapons.

Nuclear profliferation is bad, but nuclear profileration among non major powers is far worse. Larger powers have the conventional military resources to defend themselves or at the very least keep their elites in power.

Non major powers sometimes do not, and that makes them far more prone to either using these weaponds or selling the technological capabilities to other nations. For this reason, Israel should never have been allowed to get the bomb. Despite the fact they do have it, that is no reason to allow North Korea to play with it. Unless they agree to halt their military nuclear capabilities, bomb them.

They can't retaliate against US bombing raids, and such an action will at last be the first concrete step towards limiting the spread of nuclear armaments. It is both a practical and pragmatic approach.
Nice idea, until they start hitting back.......with those No Dongs.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Constantine XI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28-May-2009 at 01:25
Originally posted by Sparten Sparten wrote:

Originally posted by Constantine XI Constantine XI wrote:

We do have the chance to set a precedent here. We can bomb them into submission. Maybe it won't destroy their regime, but we can destroy their facilities they use to create these monsters, and that is enough. No invasion, no occupation, just a nice bombing campaign.

This crisis is actually an opportunity. The US can prove that it is willing to utterly ravage the infrastructure of any small-medium nation which seeks to acquire nuclear weapons. This, more than anything, would serve as a substantial deterrant to any small to medium sized power hoping to acquire these weapons.

Nuclear profliferation is bad, but nuclear profileration among non major powers is far worse. Larger powers have the conventional military resources to defend themselves or at the very least keep their elites in power.

Non major powers sometimes do not, and that makes them far more prone to either using these weaponds or selling the technological capabilities to other nations. For this reason, Israel should never have been allowed to get the bomb. Despite the fact they do have it, that is no reason to allow North Korea to play with it. Unless they agree to halt their military nuclear capabilities, bomb them.

They can't retaliate against US bombing raids, and such an action will at last be the first concrete step towards limiting the spread of nuclear armaments. It is both a practical and pragmatic approach.
Nice idea, until they start hitting back.......with those No Dongs.


The very name of those things invites ridicule. Could they truly be used to damage the US at home?
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