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Forum LockedGeostrategic Analysis of Iran's self-determination

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Geostrategic Analysis of Iran's self-determination
    Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 01:15
Being that Iranian elections are in the news, what are some possible scenarios and implications for Iran's future?

Iran is ruffled with possible voter fraud. The nation is in an uproar. Three possible immediate scenarios have raced across my mind.

1) Mullahs exert their will and forcefully crush the Mousavi movement from getting more virulent.

2) A recount of the election is established to where Mousavi possibly wins.

3) The Movement evolves further and a revolution takes place.

If the first scenario happens then nothing changes. Over time the disgruntled populace will be pacified till demonstrations dwindle.

If there is to be a recount then manipulation of the numbers of votes may come into picture. This most likely will be a mock showing by the current government. Again, over the long haul, nothing changes.

If the last scenario grows then anything is possible. The chaos may lead to an overthrow of the government. A newly fashioned one would then take it's place. To what extent will it break from it's ideological past? Will hopes for a modern democracy take hold?

Along with the last option, will other countries go in for a helping hand? Meaning will powers like the US, Russia and others attempt to support Muosavi or fabricate their own 'man' and throw support hither? Early attempts at outsider maneuvering may be fraught with backlash from the Iranians themselves.

Your thoughts?








Edited by Seko - 16-Jun-2009 at 13:19
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Constantine XI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 04:20
I wonder whether a political crisis such as this could cause a division of Iran along ethnic lines. If the regime collapses, would it be possible that parts of the nation seceed?

If so, this makes it more likely that any potential nuclear weapons program which may or may not be in the works would be abandoned.

So long as a crisis does occur, this should leave Israel feeling safer and give her a freer hand in international relations.
It is not the challenges a people face which define who they are, but rather the way in which they respond to those challenges.

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 08:19
First of all, one should not overplay the importance of what is happening right now in Iran.
 
 
What is happening is a conflict within the regime not between the people and the regime. The overwhelming majority of the demonstrators still support the regime and the fact that they voted en masse for an old guard of that regime, a guy who already expressed that he isn't changing anything (the supreme leader of the revolution will contnue to be an above the law demi-god). So a revolution against the revolution is totally unlikely if not dreams of a guy high on grass.
 
Second, whatever happens later Iran will always be Iran, Mousavi will enhance the economy, maybe reduce overspending on foreign adventures but he will continue to interfer in Iraq and the gulf, will continue to harras Azerbaijan and Afghanistan and will persue nukes as vigously as Nejad.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 08:44
I agree wilth Al-Jassas, Irans interest in the Mid East and C Asia is based upon policy considerations, some as old as 3000 years, it has not been an invention of the mullahs. Any new regime will do the exact same.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Suren Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 08:56
Al jassas, some of your assumptions are right and some wrong.

First of all, people do not have power right now in the regime. They use reformists for more freedom and better economy and respect of the world. If you remember Khatami (former president and also the real leader of reformist party) you may know he was a liberal and moderate leader. He is a good man I have met him in person and know his family through one of my family friends. when he was president, he could not talk freely cuz of Hezbollah party and supreme leader. He is an open minded person and well educated.

Majority of people who want regime change, they support Reformist party because they are one step toward freedom and less Hezbollah influence. Right now Hardliner party have Supreme leader, Guardian Council, Parliament, Army and government. For overcoming hardliner, which are the extremist and most brutal supporters of the regime, Iranians need to take government first and then sweep parliament and army; then they have enough power to bring the hard liner to their knees and from that point we can hope for a peaceful transmission of power from reformist to real democracy. Now, all reformist supporters say we do not want regime change to do not give any excuse to hard liner for suppressing them. If this does not work then regime change will be direct target, but not yet. I think this will help a bit.

Seko, I predict two scenarios.

1) Supreme leader ask for an investigation about election and at the same time ask reformists to pacify people, then they waste time to take the energy from the angry crowd and by the end they will say election was healthy. Then, whomever dare to come out will be butchered and they will take all activists to jail. They make people silence temporarily, but people will looking for another opportunity to come to street and this time it will be the end of regime or massive clashes and butchering of the people.

2. The government accept defeat and declare another election which will be a big blow for hardliners. (this one will be highly unlikely)

So, your number 2 senario is more likely with a major difference. They use it to pacify people and waste time then say Ahmadi is the winner.


Edited by Suren - 16-Jun-2009 at 09:16
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 13:32
Being that the world in general and the Iranians themselves would like nothing better for her than a chance at self-governed rule of the majority, the near future is going to be rough dear Suren. Even though Al J. thinks an overthrow is a pipedream (laden with thc too) we know through history that revolutions take time, people and sacrifice. The Clerics are twitching as the public is twittering. They tried to cut down on the communication infrastructure but to little avail. Word is out! The only thing to do would be to keep up the demonstrations till the other side flinches, then stumbles, then is ripe for the taking. This will cost numerous lives though. Will Iranians sacrifice?

In the mean time foreign countries should do everything they can financially and logistically to help restructure Iran when the time is right. However, who others support and sponsor will be of importance.

So yes, option two is a likely behavioral response of the regime.. It's used to pacifiy the public and continue their own self-declared role of superiority. The worst thing Mousavi could do is to bend over and cave in though. He has the public on his side. Now he needs to use his force wisely and persistently. The real game is on!




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Post Options Post Options   Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 20:29
Here's another thought. Let's say that the Guardian Council publicly submits it's recount results within the next ten days. Possibilities A) Ahmadinejad is re-declared the winner of disputed districts B) Someone else wins the districts but Ahmadinejad still wins the nation-wide vote.

Either way this thing will not die down. Too much time and effort has been invested where a simple sleight of hand cannot diminish. If the reformists (within and outside of the party) do not feel satisfied then protests will find renewed energy.


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Post Options Post Options   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16-Jun-2009 at 22:49
It is wishful thinking that the establishment would collapse, but it is a possibility - who would have thought the mighty Shah would fall at the beginning of dissent in 1978?  One can only hope.

Iran would not split along ethnic lines, this scenario is much overplayed in the west due to vocal a masse of separatists who are in exile for a reason.  High turnout was across the board, in all regions.

As far as Iran's foreign policy is concerned should Ahamdinejad be replaced, nothing would change except Iran would be perceived in a better light internationally.  This is exactly why Israel hopes that Mousavi does not come to power.  Ahmadinejad does not decide Iran's foreign policy.

Some context on iran's immediate neighbours:

As far as Afghanistan is concerned, Iran's - unlike Saudi, American, or Pakistani - influence there has brought a degree of prosperity (e.g.) Herat, being the most prosperous part, which we must remember was part of Iran until the 1850s when it was forcibly partitioned by the British.  The Afghan situation right now is better for Iran than when the Saudi proxy government ruled it.

Likewise Rep. Azerbaijan which was partitioned from Iran by the Tsars in 1812 - sealed its own fate as far as Iran's policy towards it is concerned in the early 90s with inflammatory anti-Iran propaganda which led to Iran's arming and supporting Armenia. More recently, since the early 2000s it has become a hub for Israeli activity against Iran. 

Iraq, whatever regime or system rules in Iran, must never be allowed to host a fanatical Arabist regime such as that of Saddam's, fortunately the Americans have ensured this by wresting Iraq from the clutches of the viscious Baathists.

So yes
Originally posted by Sparten: Irans interest in the Mid East and C Asia is based upon policy considerations, some as old as 3000 years, it has not been an invention of the mullahs. Any new regime will do the exact same.[/quote

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Post Options Post Options   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jun-2009 at 07:07

Hello to you all

I heard an analyst yesterday saying that what is happening in Iran is the "hizbullahification" of the country.

Ever since Nejad came the revolutionary guard's influence inside Iran has grown exponentially. It turned from a purely military force into a literally state within a state. The state follows a policy but the revolutionary guard follows a totally different one with the support of the supreme leader, Nejad et al. For example for some time Iranian revlutionary guard navy infiltrated the national waters of gulf states and pirated some fishing ships. These ships were immediately released with proper apologies but no accountability.

Last year a ship laden with weapons destained to Bahrain was stopped by the Saudi navy and guess what, without the official knowledge of Iranian government the revolutionary guard was sending these weapons to shia militants in Bahrain (trained in Iran and have revolutionary guard member cards). There many evidence of foul play by the revolutionary guard againt neighbours and within the country yet it is above accountability.
 
Nowadays the main military force of Iran the revolutionary guard not ministry of defense forces. All the new weapons, all the weapon developement programs, most weapon production is within its jurisdiction. Its intelligence and security services (which has been very visible in the last few days) are above the law. It is simply a state within a state just like Hizbullah.
 
As for what will happen next, well this is the 1 million dollar question. Reformists are now more extreme in their opposition than before. Conservatives are going to the right more and more and many actually think elections are not necessary. Those in the middle find their voice getting quiter and quiter and their support diminishing. The reason why the regime isn't falling is simply there isn't a secular Khomaini who galvanises the masses. All the leaders of reform are revolutionary faithful. However if some begin to change their minds (like Reza Khatami) then one can say there is a serious chance the regime will fall.
 
Finally, the mullah regime isn't full of angels. It never "spread" prosperity anywhere. The regime continues to spread instability (like Yemen and Iraq) and even in Afghanistan their intervention is negative (they bankroll Hikmatyar who now spreads terror in the far east of Afghanistan).
 
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jun-2009 at 13:31
Not only with military decisions but economic as well, the Pasdaran, has been around since its formation soon after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. This Revolutionary Guard was initially created as a 'people's army'. Now they only answer to themselves and the Guardian Council or better yet their 'supreme leader'. The ironic thing is that the Basij is also a volunteer force which recently has been incorporated into the Rev Guard. Thugs with benefits. Those guys in plain shirts beating protestors left and right with batons. So, the whole state apparatus has been under control of the Clerics and her minions, ever growing in number.

The crackdown on communications and protestors is the latest in a long line of crucial planning - the same planning that sponsored Ahmadenijad in the first place before the recent election and feloniously stuck with him despite appeals for recounts.

Who knows what will happen. It's a big apparatus that the freedom inspired populace is going against. However, there is no better time than now to make the establishment sweat in my opinion. There already are splits between Rafsanjani, who supports Mousavi, and Khamenei, who supports Ahmadenijad.


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Post Options Post Options   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jun-2009 at 13:43
The Basij has always been a branch of a the Revolutionary Guards and many people join it for its perks these days.
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Suren Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jun-2009 at 16:27
Let me tell you about a story about back there in Iran. I had red belt in kick-boxing and I was champion in my province. I was practicing with my fellow friends when one day Some Hizbullahi guys came to our club and ask many people to talk in private. They ask me if I want to join security reserve services with lost of benefits, since I hated the hizbullah party I said thank you and I will think about it. Then I wanted to know more about this organization. I did not know some of my fellows in club were already a member of this organization, then I ask them about the benefits and duties. They told me the hizbullah party come to martial art clubs and select good fighters and give them money and benefits and in return they ask them to join the organization and each time people come to street to protest come and beat people. I left the club cuz my coach (sensei) was a member of that organization. This is a true story which many people perhaps does not know. This regime has many reserve members who they pay them each month. If they bring them to Tehran they can butcher people with empty hands.


Edited by Suren - 17-Jun-2009 at 17:34
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Seko Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jun-2009 at 16:37
Zagros, I was under the impression that they initially were a separate organization. Do you know when they officially came under the umbrellas of the Rev. Guards? That would be helpful.

Suren, fascinating story. You made the right choice and got out of there. If for nothing else than your own freedom of choice and our mutual benefit by having you on this forum.


Edited by Seko - 17-Jun-2009 at 16:38
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Post Options Post Options   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17-Jun-2009 at 17:02
The Basij was tyhe first RG corps, it since evolved into a highly trained and well equipped regular force with air sea and ground branches. The original IRGC were the source of the infamous human waves from the Iraq war.

Suren great story. 

Edited by Zagros - 17-Jun-2009 at 17:15
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