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Forum LockedGeorgia's future?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote King Kang of Mu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:22
Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

Russian equipment is old though... 

 
In comparison to what?  The Georgian forces?  or U.S.?  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:27
The modern standards. Georgia is slightly better equipped but neither can be compared to the US or Turkey... 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote King Kang of Mu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:44
Wow, really?  I had no idea.  I thought they just had a big pair of you know what.   Turkey having a better euitped military makes sense though, with U.S. support and all.  So what's the Turkish reaction to all this?   Do you think they want to play a role here whether in military or diplomacy?  I doubt that Turkey can do anything major militarily without the U.S. support.      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:48

Turks will likely stay out, that's my take on it. However, I can't imagine Russia and Turkish being very friendly neighbours - the Russian mentality is not supportive of a foreign religion, as much as I've seen it. So, if Russia does occupy Georgia again and push it's borders to the Turkish, there might be some troubles arising between them.  

About technology: I don't think the US supply that many Turkish weapons. It's again a part of Turkish own concept of freedom - they are powerful (and cool) and they keep their military up to date so no one can go against them. The Russians have lacked the funds until very recently to do so. Georgia has gotten support from the States. 

Turkish military however can be very independent. Currently, they should be sized third after China and the US if I remember correctly (might be wrong though)... So, they are one of the few who don't need the States support in everything they do. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Anton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:51
Originally posted by pikeshot1600 pikeshot1600 wrote:

However, your comment has some validity.  Big powers coexist with small powers better when the latter understand the realities involved.  This is especially true when those powers are next door to one another.
This is exactly what I mean. And I think it is very much related to the topic. If ones want to make a careful analysis of the situation in SO he should get rid of Georgian, Russian and Western rhetorics and pay attention on real geopolitical interests. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Anton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:55
Originally posted by rider rider wrote:

 
So, if Russia does occupy Georgia again and push it's borders to the Turkish, there might be some troubles arising between them.  
 
I doubt it will happen but now Russia has all possibilities to recognize indepedece of SO and Abhazia and stay there for longer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Philhellene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 22:52
Originally posted by Sparten Sparten wrote:

 
The airstrikes on Gori have killed a lot of civilians and gotten a lot of bad PR. Now way they would risk that unless they thought they would get more out of the whole operation.

As for bad PR. Maybe you’ve seen Reuters photos from Gori? They are false as well as BBC reports. First of all I want tell you the truth about photos.

Here they are. 

http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/articleslideshow?articleId=USL768040420080809&channelName=newsOne#a=1

Look at them carefully.

http://community.livejournal.com/georgia_war/45708.html

All comments are in Russian but I can translate them for you.

1) In both photos we see the same dead guy but in different places and in different positions.

2) Crying guy from the first photo appears on the second one in different clothes. First he wear jeans, then he’s in black.

http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20080809&t=2&i=5508259&w=&r=2008-08-09T135819Z_01_L7680404_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE7

And finally he’s in shirt.

In the last photo we see little boy with injured knees. They look terrible. But this boy is absolutely calm. I think he smiles. But he should have suffered lot of pain. His wounds are awfull.

Real war is not happening in Georgia or Ossetia but in Internet and TV channels.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Philhellene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 23:09

http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=VDKVgG78VnI&eurl=

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7550965.stm

BBC and Georgian TV channels tell that Russian air forces bombed Gori and killed lot of citizens. And they show their video reports. But they are false too. First of all we see the actors from Reuters photos. Moreover we hear gunshots. But according to BBC, Georgian TV and Georgian officials only Russians airplanes bombed Gori. There were no Russian tanks or infantry. How could we hear gunshots? We hear them because these videos were shot not in Gori but in South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.

Now you know why Georgian authorities shut down Russian TV channels and Internet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 23:59
Originally posted by Anton Anton wrote:

Originally posted by pikeshot1600 pikeshot1600 wrote:

However, your comment has some validity.  Big powers coexist with small powers better when the latter understand the realities involved.  This is especially true when those powers are next door to one another.
This is exactly what I mean. And I think it is very much related to the topic. If ones want to make a careful analysis of the situation in SO he should get rid of Georgian, Russian and Western rhetorics and pay attention on real geopolitical interests. 
 
I can agree....so, what ARE the real geopolitical interests?  I have mentioned a couple, and there have been some others mentioned.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 00:02
If we continue to get news articles and videos, we should move the topic to Current Affairs.
 
Please keep the discussion to aspects of geopolitics rather than outrage and propaganda.
 
Thanks.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Philhellene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 00:17
" If we continue to get news articles and videos, we should move the topic to Current Affairs."

I agree. I don't think this topic concerns any historical issues.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Anton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 00:25

It is I think it is mostly controls over transport of caspian oil and Georgia-NATO issue. Same is related to American interests.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 00:31
Originally posted by pikeshot1600 pikeshot1600 wrote:

 
I can agree....so, what ARE the real geopolitical interests?  I have mentioned a couple, and there have been some others mentioned.
 
 
 The last thing we need in here is an echo chamber! Your geopolitical views usally reflect mine too such an great extent, that if i were too add anything, it would be this one post in support of your postions! Thumbs%20Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 00:34
Originally posted by Anton Anton wrote:

It is I think it is mostly controls over transport of caspian oil and Georgia-NATO issue. Same is related to American interests.

 
Maybe i am not following you here, but i think Russia wouldn't even be bothering with this war at all, if she didn't have much more higher interest in the flow of oil through the area, which coincidentally... happens to be in her old stomping grounds?


Edited by Panther - 10-Aug-2008 at 00:35
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Philhellene Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 00:36
Kevin started this thread. Do you know what he asked? He asked: "What is Georgia's future now that Russia has decided to take action?" Of course the US and NATO support Georgia because of its role as oil transit country, but conflict between Russia and Ossetia on one side and Georgia on the other is much more difficult.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Panther Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 01:06
Originally posted by Philhellene Philhellene wrote:

Kevin started this thread. Do you know what he asked? He asked: "What is Georgia's future now that Russia has decided to take action?" Of course the US and NATO support Georgia because of its role as oil transit country, but conflict between Russia and Ossetia on one side and Georgia on the other is much more difficult.
 
I'm sure it is. But seeing that before the pipeline ran through Georgia, it meant it had to run either through Russia or Iran, which means that if Russia wins the conflict... Georgia will be put in it's place and much more easily influenced from Moscow again, as well as a percentage of the world's oil supply. I'm not claiming the Russians want too rule Georgia again like it had in the past, just reminding them physically whose boss in the region?
 
If they hold them off, they retain their independence in their foreign affairs, which means it chooses too align itself with the west rather than Russia's, that is... depending on who is elected to their presidential office, while at the same time, a percentage of the world's oil supply as well as the EU and US's will remain open.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 01:51
The entire intent of this operation is two-fold:
 
1)  To demonstrate to NATO that Russia will not tolerate strategic encroachment on her southern flank.
 
2)  To encourage the Caucasus states to see that their independence is at the pleasure and convenience of Russia.
 
Independence in foreign affairs is a function of power, not principle.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 04:15
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

It will create a georgeo-turkic axis that will further isolate Armenia, strengthen american presence in the region and will reignite some of the struggles mainly the qarabagh strugle and the minor Armenian region of Smatskhe (hope I got it right). russia will most likely force Abkhazia and Ossetia's independence, the former is more likely for geographical reasons.
 
Al-Jassas
That axis already exists, the BTC pipeline is its love child. You will have to add Anglo-isreali to that axis of (sp)oil.Smile

BTW Armenians and Greeks have been mistreated in south Georgia since Georgian independence, hence why the little bully is getting a taste of its own and a few of us are quite pleased. Everyone has the right to self determination not a select few that have western blessing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Aussiedude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 05:23
I think what people are failing to realise is that Georgia, not Russia, started this war by invading South Ossetia....
 
South Ossetians should have a right to self determination.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10-Aug-2008 at 05:34
Not much discussion on why Georgia launched the invasion against South Ossetia and risk a Georgian-Russian war.

More discussion on the Russian respond to Georgian aggression against South Ossetia.

I am curious as to why Georgia wanted to risk a military conflict with Russia.

USA and NATO did not come out and openly support Georgia's military operations.


Quote South Ossetians should have a right to self determination.


Georgia(Serbia), South Ossetia(Kosovo), Russia(NATO), USA/NATO(Russia) anyone? Smile

Western media is using double standards as usual.



Edited by Bankotsu - 10-Aug-2008 at 05:37
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