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    Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 13:33
What is Georgia's future now that Russia has decided to take action?

I'm thinking that ether the Georgian Government will be replaced with a more pro-Russian one or Georgia maybe completely held hostage by Russia geopolitically from now on.

So what does everyone think?
 

Edited by Kevin - 09-Aug-2008 at 13:34
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 13:41
It is hard to tell for now.

One important factor is whether USA/NATO will continue to support Georgia.

So far USA has not made a strong statement about its intentions towards the current war.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 14:02
Essentially the Russian are saying to their neighbours "bend over, we are back comrade"!
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 14:51
Originally posted by Sparten Sparten wrote:

Essentially the Russian are saying to their neighbours "bend over, we are back comrade"!
 
As stated elsewhere, this is the historical approach Russia has taken toward contiguous geographies where her vital interests are seen to be impacted.  It may be that the approach has worked well enough as the ruthlessness in Chechnya showed.
 
"Comrade" may not be back with hammer and sickle, but the Russian Bear also wore a crown before 1917.  Smile
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 15:03
Originally posted by Bankotsu Bankotsu wrote:

It is hard to tell for now.

One important factor is whether USA/NATO will continue to support Georgia.

So far USA has not made a strong statement about its intentions towards the current war.


 
The only real US interest here is the integrity of the oil pipeline.  Better if an independent Georgia and other small, independent states control it directly, but keeping it open is paramount.  The current affair is likely to reduce Georgia's annoying independence and put her in her place vis a vis Russia.
 
The Russians can be expected to exert leverage over the pipeline and Georgia's future policies.  They will also ensure that the pipeline remains available as it affects a large number of other states' interests too.  However, NATO interference in the Caucasus will be shortstopped after this low-intensity, low-cost operation, and the ongoing perception of a return of Russian power will be very useful, both in the Caucasus and in central Asia.
 
The more influence Russia can have over the pipeline (and associated economics) the better her position on her southern strategic flank...as well as her political bargaining position. 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Anton Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 15:12
Originally posted by pikeshot1600 pikeshot1600 wrote:

As stated elsewhere, this is the historical approach Russia has taken toward contiguous geographies where her vital interests are seen to be impacted.  It may be that the approach has worked well enough as the ruthlessness in Chechnya showed. 
This historical approach is not unique for Russia but was used by any other Empire. Look for instance GB some 200 years ago or USA now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 15:37

I really doubt the Russian are sending whole corps to the theater just to dispatch Georgians. I mean a reinforced division would be enough. I would not be surprised if the Russian are going to go into Georgia in a big way. Get rid of Shaakivalli (sp?) and put a puppet government incharge.

 
The airstrikes on Gori have killed a lot of civilians and gotten a lot of bad PR. Now way they would risk that unless they thought they would get more out of the whole operation.
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 15:38
Shaakivalli is an  idiot incidentally. He has ruined his country.
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 15:44
It will create a georgeo-turkic axis that will further isolate Armenia, strengthen american presence in the region and will reignite some of the struggles mainly the qarabagh strugle and the minor Armenian region of Smatskhe (hope I got it right). russia will most likely force Abkhazia and Ossetia's independence, the former is more likely for geographical reasons.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 15:48
Georgia is foolish to go against Russia.

They think that with western backing or by joining NATO, they can act like the baltic states.

But they don't even have total control over their own territory.




Edited by Bankotsu - 09-Aug-2008 at 15:49
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberts Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 16:01
Originally posted by Bankotsu Bankotsu wrote:



They think that with western backing or by joining NATO, they can act like the baltic states.


What does it mean? How do we act according to you?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bankotsu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 16:05
More assertive towards Russia?

More anti-Russian?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberts Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 16:14
Originally posted by Bankotsu Bankotsu wrote:

More assertive towards Russia?

More anti-Russian?

Anti-Russian is a wide conception.
Now I would describe at least Latvian relationships with Russia as only business.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 17:35

And we don't act against Russia; Russia acts against us, in propagandistic ways.

Unfortunately, I must say, the world fails. If no one helps Georgia, Georgia will lose (btw, how have they got such a small military.. they can mobilize nearly 140,000 men... and their population is far higher. I think even our general mobilization would bring in up to 200,000 men...). 

If Georgia loses, then Russia knows that there is no one to stop them from doing anything (US care about some random nations having nuclear power and refining but not independent states being attacked and stomped... at least on a grand scale). 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 17:52

Yes. I checked. Estonia can mobilize up to 210k men. Georgia can mobilize 100k by what I read on Wiki. Don't know if I can trust that though. CIA tells me that Georgia can mobilize around 900k though. Don't know what to trust (CIA obviously).

Sorry for confusing the population... :P

Russian equipment is old though... 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mortaza Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 18:25
Related to how much Georgians resist. 
 
I dont think, Russia will risk to occupy all georgia. This will just create another cold war..
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 02bburco Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 18:32
i really fear for the current situation georgia are not going to back down (quite rightly) an even the combined power of UN NATO and US my not convience Putin and his puppet president to call off the war, conversly the rest of the word cannot afford to sit back and allow russia to do do this as they may take other liberties a la the Nazis and a word war could be in the offing that said i do bleive that no one wants that and so it should just stop short but the rest of the world needs to back georgia if it doesnt want the new USSR or Cold war and by back i mean unaquivaclly not just a watery stament of intent they need to say to russia we weill go to war over this back off even if they have actually no intent of going to war as statments or UN reselution will not scare Russia, action from most of europe or at least threats of it might   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 19:52
Originally posted by Anton Anton wrote:

Originally posted by pikeshot1600 pikeshot1600 wrote:

As stated elsewhere, this is the historical approach Russia has taken toward contiguous geographies where her vital interests are seen to be impacted.  It may be that the approach has worked well enough as the ruthlessness in Chechnya showed. 
This historical approach is not unique for Russia but was used by any other Empire. Look for instance GB some 200 years ago or USA now.
 
The thread is about Russia and Georgia.  Please keep it on point.  Thanks.
 
However, your comment has some validity.  Big powers coexist with small powers better when the latter understand the realities involved.  This is especially true when those powers are next door to one another.
 
 
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 09-Aug-2008 at 20:02
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pikeshot1600 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 19:54
Originally posted by Sparten Sparten wrote:

I really doubt the Russian are sending whole corps to the theater just to dispatch Georgians. I mean a reinforced division would be enough. I would not be surprised if the Russian are going to go into Georgia in a big way. Get rid of Shaakivalli (sp?) and put a puppet government incharge.

 
The airstrikes on Gori have killed a lot of civilians and gotten a lot of bad PR. Now way they would risk that unless they thought they would get more out of the whole operation.
 
Gee Whiz!  Regime change in Georgia for desired geopolitical ends?  Who would have thought?  Big%20smile
 
 


Edited by pikeshot1600 - 09-Aug-2008 at 19:55
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09-Aug-2008 at 21:13

Everyone? :P

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