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Forum Lockedcould the nazis have invaded England?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 22:06
In my opinion we are giving two groups of people way too much credits:
- Fighter pilots. The Luftwaffe had proved at Dunkirk a European air force was not able to prevent an amphibian operation.
- General. They should have known that fighter pilots were not that good.

We are referring to the Japanese navy pilots. But the guys of the RAF were not the over trained ship-killers that attacked Pearl Harbour and sunk the Prince of Wales. The Operation Pedestal and the convoys to Russia or the Tokyo express in Guadacanal are good evidence that when the Navy wanted to go through, it did go through.

True, the same holds for the RN that could have crushed anything the Nazi threw at her. But what the Germans needed to do was merely to establish a bridge head. After that the Kriegsmarine + Luftwaffe + UBoats + mines + land-based artillery could have kept opened a safe corridor in the Channel.

True, the Brits could have won at home. But the French and the Poles also were playing at home and had been badly defeated. The BEF's actions in France don't really show that they could have been a strong opponent to Guderian and Rommel. The Brits fancy themselves as special and think the last infant would have become a guerrillero throwing Molotov cocktails in baby bottles to the Panzers. But the experience in the Channel Islands points to a different direction.

England would have collapsed. It might have taken some time due to the difficulties related to the crossing of the Channel, but the Huns would have gone through and taken Edinburgh by Christmas 1940 at the latest. Of course some amazing event could have happened, you know the silly mistake that destroys the best laid plan, but the same could have happened to the English, so…

In my opinion, the Nazi didn't do it because they were afraid. The Germans had lost less than 20,000 men since the beginning of the war. 1940 is not 1943, they were not ready to sacrifice a fourth of the army to save the 3 others as they did in Stalingrad. The British propaganda had done a wonderful work at convincing the German soldiers that seal lion would be a blood bath.

Ultimately, it was a mistake since much less German soldiers would have died in the invasion of England than did in the later battles against the English. I am sure the German commanders would have come out with a brilliant plan to overcome the English and won once more.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 22:17

Obviously nothing can be certain, but the comparison of miniscule islands without any hope of supply or support is incomparable to an operation in Great Britain.  The Nazis would have been pushed back into the water.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deadkenny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 22:35
Originally posted by Maharbbal Maharbbal wrote:

In my opinion we are giving two groups of people way too much credits:
- Fighter pilots. The Luftwaffe had proved at Dunkirk a European air force was not able to prevent an amphibian operation.
- General. They should have known that fighter pilots were not that good.

We are referring to the Japanese navy pilots. But the guys of the RAF were not the over trained ship-killers that attacked Pearl Harbour and sunk the Prince of Wales. The Operation Pedestal and the convoys to Russia or the Tokyo express in Guadacanal are good evidence that when the Navy wanted to go through, it did go through.
 
But it wasn't 'fighters' that would have been attacking German shipping in any case.  The RN would have been attacking the German invasion forces.  The Luftwaffe needed to attack the RN with their bombers.  The RAF Fighter Command would have been trying to keep the Luftwaffe bombers away from the RN ships.


Originally posted by Maharbbal Maharbbal wrote:


In my opinion, the Nazi didn't do it because they were afraid. The Germans had lost less than 20,000 men since the beginning of the war. 1940 is not 1943, they were not ready to sacrifice a fourth of the army to save the 3 others as they did in Stalingrad. The British propaganda had done a wonderful work at convincing the German soldiers that seal lion would be a blood bath.

Ultimately, it was a mistake since much less German soldiers would have died in the invasion of England than did in the later battles against the English. I am sure the German commanders would have come out with a brilliant plan to overcome the English and won once more.
 
German losses in the invasion of Poland in 1939 were approx. 44,000, including over 16,000 dead.  In the invasion of France in 1940 the German losses were approx. 155,000 including about 45,000 dead.  You are rather understating German losses up to that point, and I believe are underestimating Hitler's willingness to accept losses.  Hitler would have been more concerned about the potential political 'damage' that attempting and failing an invasion of Britain would have entailed.


Edited by deadkenny - 05-Apr-2008 at 22:36
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deadkenny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 22:39
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Obviously nothing can be certain, but the comparison of miniscule islands without any hope of supply or support is incomparable to an operation in Great Britain.  The Nazis would have been pushed back into the water.

 
It depends on when the invasion took place, and what the British had to repell it.  In the historical situation in Sept., I agree entirely.  If the Germans had captured the BEF at Dunkirk and invaded Britain in July, what would the British have had to push the Germans back into the Channel?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 22:54
Originally posted by deadkenny deadkenny wrote:

But it wasn't 'fighters' that would have been attacking German shipping in any case.  The RN would have been attacking the German invasion forces.  The Luftwaffe needed to attack the RN with their bombers.  The RAF Fighter Command would have been trying to keep the Luftwaffe bombers away from the RN ships.
 
And 6000 RAF bombers attacking the open top barges.
 
Germany needed to knock out the RAF fighters so their own fighters could engage the bombers.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deadkenny Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 23:06
Originally posted by Paul Paul wrote:

  
And 6000 RAF bombers attacking the open top barges.
 
Germany needed to knock out the RAF fighters so their own fighters could engage the bombers.
 
 
 
I don't doubt for a moment that the British would have thrown 'everything' at the Germans in order to stop them.  However, the RAF Bomber Command was intended to be a 'strategic' bombing force, so it is questionable how effective they would have been against shipping.  The Americans similarly found 'high altitude' level bombing was ineffective against shipping at sea.  British bombing efforts against the the converted barges in port was somewhat effective though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05-Apr-2008 at 23:28
They weren't all strategic, don't forget the Bristol Blenheim's.
 
Also the Wellington's were anti-submarine bombers, so maybe able to better a barge or two.
 
 
 


Edited by Paul - 05-Apr-2008 at 23:30
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Maharbbal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 00:50
Hum, remember the flying circus (not the monty python, the wwi tactics). The one who attacks has a logical numerical lead.
Some of the airfields would have been captured by paratroopers, diversions would have fooled the Brits into sending their part of their planes somewhere else, part of the crossing would take place at night (no risks of being bombarded then), etc. The invading force would thus only face 10 to 30% of the RAF while itself being at full force. For two or three critical hours, the Brits would have been wiped off the skies. And even if they hadn't most of their planes would be busy fighting the planes and thus would have no impact on land.

If the Germans had tried to send say 2 divisions as a first wave and 1 airborne they could have been successful. Based on Omaha Beach, Market Garden, Crete and Tarawa, heavy losses don't necessarily take off the fighting abilities of an invasion force. It is likely that the first day 10,000 men could have landed and still be ready to fight by midnight. Once the breach is made: blitzkrieg… And the BEF had proved to be incapable of facing that victoriously (and they would again in Africa and Greece).

DK you were right I was mistaking Poland and the whole 39-40 period. You are also right, Hitler might have dread above all the risk of defeat, but still, fear may have been the reason why they didn't dare.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 10:49
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

The problem Britain had wasn't with aircraft numbers or production; there was simply a shortage of pilots to fly them.
 
While that's true, the situation was even worse for the Luftwaffe. In fact the British advantage in this respect was one of its major ones.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 10:56
Originally posted by Illirac Illirac wrote:

Originally posted by longshanks31 longshanks31 wrote:

germany had no real chance in either direction, an invasion would have been a distaster for them, 


They had a chance: increase the number of U-boats so that the supplies and convoys from the USA would be brought down.
They tried that in WWI. It brought the USA into the war.
(As a matter of fact, the British tried something similar in the war against Napoleon, and that brought the US into the war on Napoleon's side.)
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More aircrafts.
???
The British had more aircraft, were producing them faster and also buying them in from the US (and after the first months of the war, pilots from the Commonwealth and from eastern Europe (mostly Poland) were also coming on stream. The longer that went on the greater Britain's air superiority would have been.
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The Germans had time to wait, the whole north see was in range of their bombers. No major treat in Europe except the USSR, but they would have not attacked (pact of non-aggression). Some more V1, V2 and the whole Britain would be Coventrated.
The V2 was dangerous because it was difficult to defend against. But as an aggressive weapon it was useless because not targetable. All it did was knock down houses and kill civilians. (And of course the V2 bases were in range of British fighters and bombers.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Paul Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 13:00
Originally posted by Maharbbal Maharbbal wrote:

Hum, remember the flying circus (not the monty python, the wwi tactics). The one who attacks has a logical numerical lead.
Some of the airfields would have been captured by paratroopers, diversions would have fooled the Brits into sending their part of their planes somewhere else, part of the crossing would take place at night (no risks of being bombarded then), etc. The invading force would thus only face 10 to 30% of the RAF while itself being at full force. For two or three critical hours, the Brits would have been wiped off the skies. And even if they hadn't most of their planes would be busy fighting the planes and thus would have no impact on land.
 
 
Very exciting and pure speculation....
 
.....Nice storyline though. Are you writng a screenplay?
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 13:30
Originally posted by deadkenny deadkenny wrote:

Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

Obviously nothing can be certain, but the comparison of miniscule islands without any hope of supply or support is incomparable to an operation in Great Britain.  The Nazis would have been pushed back into the water.

 
It depends on when the invasion took place, and what the British had to repell it.  In the historical situation in Sept., I agree entirely.  If the Germans had captured the BEF at Dunkirk and invaded Britain in July, what would the British have had to push the Germans back into the Channel?


Yes and my inclination is that even with the annihilation of the BEF a Nazi invasion could have been fought off.  A Nazi Invasion would not be a surprise attack like Omaha etc were - its landing location would be predictable.  And I don't know whether you have seen the Kentish coastline or not, but it's not the most hospitable to amphibious assault.   The RAF could provide enough air support  to keep the Luftwaffe busy and the Royal navy would pummel the Germans in the channel.

German paratroop planes would get intercepted by the RAF and/or the troopers would land - occupy some town or village, get surrounded and destroyed while their supporting amphibious forces would barely make it to any beach.


Edited by Zagros - 06-Apr-2008 at 13:32
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cryptic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 14:43
And what about the Home Fleet?  What would be the effect of even a few heavy units firing on the improvised barges?
 
German Naval Heavy Units could not stop the better trained and better led British Fleet. There were very few U-Boats available to protect the invasion fleet and even then, high speed warships are difficult to target, especialy when screened by Anti Submarine patrols, and they can absorb more than one Torpedo hit.
 
Likewise the ability of the luftwafe to protect the invasion fleet was very limited. Not only would the British fleet be overflown by the RAF, but German pilot lacked training in sea attacks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote red clay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 16:46
Originally posted by Paul Paul wrote:

Originally posted by deadkenny deadkenny wrote:

But it wasn't 'fighters' that would have been attacking German shipping in any case.  The RN would have been attacking the German invasion forces.  The Luftwaffe needed to attack the RN with their bombers.  The RAF Fighter Command would have been trying to keep the Luftwaffe bombers away from the RN ships.
 
And 6000 RAF bombers attacking the open top barges.
 
Germany needed to knock out the RAF fighters so their own fighters could engage the bombers.
 
 
 
 
6,000 RAF bombers?  Even after the 8th Air force arrived there weren't that many bombers available, let alone the RAF on it's own.
 
 
The Nazis couldn't have, wouldn't have, invaded England.  One reason, one word, Fuel.
They lacked any intelligent means of providing a steady supply of fuel for their mechanized units and they knew it.  They also knew that without the Mechanized units they had no chance.   England relied solely upon import for their fuel so there wasn't anything to rely on by capture.  They would have had to transport it by tanker across the Channel.  In theory the Brits wouldn't have had to go after anything else, just concentrate on the fuel ships.  In short time the German army would have run dry, and their luck would have run out.
 
The Allies recognized this problem also.  Their solution was to use the same technology as was used for the Trans Atlantic Cable and laid a flexible pipeline under the Channel, terminating in France.  Amazingly this only took about 10 days to accomplish.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Illirac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 17:46
Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

The British had more aircraft, were producing them faster

Yes, and where have they producing it? In all of its empire: India, Africa, etc. How many were they producing at home? by the 1944 the German production of aircraft was double then that of the Brits, so they could easily have that production in 1940 if they were planning to invade. The question was: could the nazis have invaded England?
Answer: if they would have planned it from the beginning, they would, and probably would conquer it. Since they were not planning they did not, and did not conquer it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Illirac Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 17:47
Originally posted by Cryptic Cryptic wrote:

German Naval Heavy Units could not stop the better trained and better led British Fleet.
 


I wonder, why were the English so afraid of the German fleet then?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 18:05
Why wouldn't they be?  That is why they made a point of destroying the Bismarck, in addition to obliterating the Vichy Navy and Italian Navy.  The German navy was reduced to primarily sub-marine operations and trhere is a reason for that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 18:15
Originally posted by Maharbbal Maharbbal wrote:

Hum, remember the flying circus (not the monty python, the wwi tactics). The one who attacks has a logical numerical lead.
Some of the airfields would have been captured by paratroopers, diversions would have fooled the Brits into sending their part of their planes somewhere else, part of the crossing would take place at night (no risks of being bombarded then), etc. The invading force would thus only face 10 to 30% of the RAF while itself being at full force. For two or three critical hours, the Brits would have been wiped off the skies. And even if they hadn't most of their planes would be busy fighting the planes and thus would have no impact on land.

If the Germans had tried to send say 2 divisions as a first wave and 1 airborne they could have been successful. Based on Omaha Beach, Market Garden, Crete and Tarawa, heavy losses don't necessarily take off the fighting abilities of an invasion force. It is likely that the first day 10,000 men could have landed and still be ready to fight by midnight.
Big deal, even if 'likely'is a wild overstatement for 'possible but difficult to believe'. What good would 10,000 troops do?
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Once the breach is made: blitzkrieg…
Blitzkrieg depends entirely on armour and tactical air superiority. With the RAF dominant in the air, and the 10,000 troops lackong armour, where does the blitzkreig come from?
 
The Germans would have been outnumbered and underequipped and wide open to air attack. Generally speaking that combination does not indicate likely success.
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 And the BEF had proved to be incapable of facing that victoriously (and they would again in Africa and Greece).
Greece (Crete) is perhaps relevant, but there was no blitzkrieg in Africa. You may not have noticed but the British defeated the Germans in Africa, without any US support.
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DK you were right I was mistaking Poland and the whole 39-40 period. You are also right, Hitler might have dread above all the risk of defeat, but still, fear may have been the reason why they didn't dare.
They had good reason to be afraid. Once the initial battle had been lost against the RAF, they knew there was no chance of a successful invasion. They were rather better informed about comparative strengths than you appear to be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gcle2003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 18:38
Originally posted by red clay red clay wrote:

Originally posted by Paul Paul wrote:

Originally posted by deadkenny deadkenny wrote:

But it wasn't 'fighters' that would have been attacking German shipping in any case.  The RN would have been attacking the German invasion forces.  The Luftwaffe needed to attack the RN with their bombers.  The RAF Fighter Command would have been trying to keep the Luftwaffe bombers away from the RN ships.
 
And 6000 RAF bombers attacking the open top barges.
 
Germany needed to knock out the RAF fighters so their own fighters could engage the bombers.
 
 
6,000 RAF bombers?  Even after the 8th Air force arrived there weren't that many bombers available, let alone the RAF on it's own.
In 1940 the RAF had 6,000 Blenheims and Whitleys alone. And of course somewhere around were nearly 12,000 Wellingtons, though some of those were built after 1940.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote red clay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06-Apr-2008 at 19:34
Originally posted by gcle2003 gcle2003 wrote:

Originally posted by red clay red clay wrote:

Originally posted by Paul Paul wrote:

Originally posted by deadkenny deadkenny wrote:

But it wasn't 'fighters' that would have been attacking German shipping in any case.  The RN would have been attacking the German invasion forces.  The Luftwaffe needed to attack the RN with their bombers.  The RAF Fighter Command would have been trying to keep the Luftwaffe bombers away from the RN ships.
 
And 6000 RAF bombers attacking the open top barges.
 
Germany needed to knock out the RAF fighters so their own fighters could engage the bombers.
 
 
6,000 RAF bombers?  Even after the 8th Air force arrived there weren't that many bombers available, let alone the RAF on it's own.
In 1940 the RAF had 6,000 Blenheims and Whitleys alone. And of course somewhere around were nearly 12,000 Wellingtons, though some of those were built after 1940.
 
 
 
Total production figures for both medium and light bombers from 1938 to late 1940 was just under 6,000.
 
Production of heavy bombers didn't begin until 1941, with acceptance figures at a little over 400.
 
I'm counting the Wellington as a medium bomber, in so doing I'm coming up 12,000 short of the numbers your quoting.
 
 
Also, if there were as many bombers available this early on, why was it that Harris had to "scrape together every bomber available, including those of the advanced training squadrons" to put up his first 1,000 plane raid in early 42.  Of those nearly a hundred had to abort due to mechanical problems. So it really wasn't a 1,000 plane raid.  If England indeed had a total of 18,000 planes at it's disposal, it doesn't make sense.
 
 
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