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Al Jassas ![]() Arch Duke ![]() Joined: 07-Aug-2007 Status: Offline Points: 1809 |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Posted: 19-May-2009 at 18:22 |
Hello to you all
Obviously no one has noticed this so here is some news, after 26 years of a very bloody civil war, Sri Lanka finally achieved victory against the Tamil Tigers:
What really bothers me is the length of this conflict. I mean Tamils are about 15% of the total population of Sri Lanka and not even half of them support the rebels (Christians and muslims are about half the Tamil population and the tigers consider them enemies and traitors). Yet they nearly won the war several times (I wont forget their massive victories in the 90s when thousand of government soldiers died during the battles for Jaffna).
Anyway hats off to them, they were propably the best rebel group in terms of professionalism and organization that ever existed.
What do you think is next for Sri Lanka, will there be victors justice or reason will rule over and reconciliation?
Al-Jassas
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Parnell ![]() Chieftain ![]() ![]() Joined: 04-Apr-2007 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 1365 |
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I read somewhere that the Tamils based their tactics on the tactics used by the IRA against the British in 1919-1921. How 'guerrilla' were they and what was the level of local popular support? (As in, is the 50% figure correct or is it a sign of an erosion of support over many years? Because still have 50% support after 26 years of bloody chaos is quite impressive really)
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"Neither apathy nor antipathy can ever bring out the truth of history" Eoin Mac Neill.
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Constantine XI ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Lord of Hut River Province Principality Joined: 01-May-2005 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 5711 |
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What comes next?
Terrorism. They are a sizeable group which is dissatisfied and was prepared to resort to conventional warfare to achieve their aims. Now that the strategy of conventional military action is closed to them, they will resort to a campaign of terror. They have everything they need to make it happen: willpower, organisation, experience with and access to explosives, support of a significant percentage of the population. The conventional battles may well be over, but the suffering will continue for at least a long while yet. |
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It is not the challenges a people face which define who they are, but rather the way in which they respond to those challenges.
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Kevin ![]() Editorial Staff ![]() ![]() AE Editor Joined: 27-Apr-2007 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 789 |
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Btw I get the feeling that the fight for the Sri Lankan Government isn't really over and that the fighting will enter a new entirely different phase. Edited by Kevin - 20-May-2009 at 02:22 |
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Sparten ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Totalitarian Iconoclast Joined: 18-Mar-2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 5009 |
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Its over I would say. Tne LTTE has been decisivly defeated. They no longer have a safe haven to plan their attacks and more importantly the Tamils in SL (not the diaspora) feel they have been defeated. Like Germany in 1945 most military age Tamils are either dead, crippled or in prison.
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The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Al Jassas ![]() Arch Duke ![]() Joined: 07-Aug-2007 Status: Offline Points: 1809 |
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Hello Parnell
Withall due respect, Sri Lankan civil war is no where near the Irsih civil disturbances called Irish war. More people were killed in gang land wars in New York in the same period than people in this conflict.
This was a full conventional war with regular units on both sides and fighting openly to control one part or the other. The LTTE had the best rebel force and best rebel organization of any force in the world and nearly achieved victory.
By the way many Hindu Tamils actually support the government and Tamils always had representation in the Sri Lankan parliament. I think the LTTE will wait and see what happens and will resort to terror first if the Sri Lankan government gets back on its promises.
AL-Jassas
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Parnell ![]() Chieftain ![]() ![]() Joined: 04-Apr-2007 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 1365 |
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I wasn't saying it was anywhere near as bloody as the Irish war of Independence, I was asking whether they modelled their tactics on the IRA 'flying columns' but on a much grander scale.
Tom Barry was allegedly Che Geuvara's inspiration BTW...
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"Neither apathy nor antipathy can ever bring out the truth of history" Eoin Mac Neill.
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Sparten ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Totalitarian Iconoclast Joined: 18-Mar-2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 5009 |
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The IRA was a militant organisation which bascially attacked British Army and RIC when they were'nt looking. The LTTE ran a government of their own and at one point controlled 1/3 of Sri Lanka. The events are a lot more like 1798 than 1919-1922.
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The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Peteratwar ![]() Colonel ![]() Joined: 17-Apr-2007 Status: Offline Points: 579 |
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I suspect the Sri Lankan Government has a window of opportunity to make some political concessions. Ultimately if they can at least reduce the reasons for conflict there will be a better chance for peace holding given the general war-weariness around
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Omar al Hashim ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Joined: 05-Jan-2006 Location: Snowy-Highlands Status: Offline Points: 5725 |
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So much to say, not enough time to write a proper post.
Basically this is over iff the government is generous in victory and can convince the Tamils that the Buddhists aren't going to go around trying to massacre the Hindus again. If the Hindus think the Buddhists are still out to get them, the conflict won't finish, and the Tamil Tigers will resort to other tactics. Hopefully I'll write more on this soon. |
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"O Byzantines! If success is your desire and if you seek right guidance and want your empire to remain then give the pledge to this Prophet"
~ Heraclius, Roman Emperor |
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Zaitsev ![]() Chieftain ![]() ![]() Joined: 16-Oct-2006 Location: The Hill Status: Offline Points: 1008 |
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I have to agree with the last two posts there. I believe that the war, as it can be said to have existed, is now over. The conflict, however, is yet to be resolved. With the constant alleged human rights abuses by the government, and their apparently devotion to winning the conflict militarily, it doesn't seem that Sri Lanka is looking to resolve the divide and may, in fact, be more radical than ever before.
If they do attempt to resolve the situation, however, the war weariness will likely allow a peace to hold, as has been said. If not, it is likely that more subversive, if less organised, warfare is likely to be initiated once more by less weary or satisfied members of the rebels. If this is allowed to happen, it is likely that these pockets of resistance will combine once more to form a new front. |
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Straw Man - a weak or sham argument
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Zagros ![]() Emperor ![]() ![]() retired AE Moderator Joined: 11-Aug-2004 Location: London Status: Offline Points: 8795 |
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Tamil Tigers: pioneers of the living bomb. Good riddance. What really chaffs me off is their annoying diaspora blockading Westminster and subsequently my journey home from work. The cost of policing their antics has reached £8m and counting. I am sure deporting all of the buggers would cost less.
A month or two ago, I read a headline: "protestors threaten to throw themselves into the Thames": LET them, is what I thought, and don't waste any money trying to rescue them. They are taking bloody liberties with their uncalled for demonstrations - what effing use is it demonstrating here? Sri Lanka's literally on the other side of the world - they should take their disruptive demonstrations there, if they dare - just don't infringe my human rights, waste my money or my free time. |
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Peteratwar ![]() Colonel ![]() Joined: 17-Apr-2007 Status: Offline Points: 579 |
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One thing that concerns me is the call from the EU (amongst others) for a probe into possible war crimes.
Firtstly this is gross interference and is nothing to do with the EU
Second Sri Lanka has to heal the wounds and not allow the scabs to be picked open as it were.
There may be a time to look at what happened. It isn't now
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Sparten ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Totalitarian Iconoclast Joined: 18-Mar-2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 5009 |
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The LTTE is finished and the political efforts in SL would be geared to ensuring that the events of 1983-2009 can never happen again. Why should Sri Lanka after a decisive military victory allow the very things she has fought for near three decade to prevent from coming about? Its like saying after Appomattox Court House that the Union should have accepted continued slavery since that was addressing the root cause of the war
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The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Zaitsev ![]() Chieftain ![]() ![]() Joined: 16-Oct-2006 Location: The Hill Status: Offline Points: 1008 |
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It's really nothing like that. Had the South won, it would be like asking them to abolish slavery anyway. I'm sure we'd all agree that this would be a good thing. In addition, slavery was not really a root cause of the war. |
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Straw Man - a weak or sham argument
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Leonidas ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Joined: 01-Oct-2005 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 4617 |
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good riddance the Tigers were way to hard line to be acceptable political partners in sri lanka. They didnt accpet opposition within the tamil community and were agianst other monirities
That island should never be divided into two states. |
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Zagros ![]() Emperor ![]() ![]() retired AE Moderator Joined: 11-Aug-2004 Location: London Status: Offline Points: 8795 |
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For me, looking at the situation beyond how bloody annoying their zealots here are, I agree with Leonidas and would also like to point at the EU and laugh; what moral authority do those muppets in Brussels have to expect their call for an independent investigation into war crimes to be taken seriously?
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Sparten ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Totalitarian Iconoclast Joined: 18-Mar-2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 5009 |
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Yes I can just about imagine the Sri Lankan government telling their army "well done guys, for a generation you have struggeled and have shed blood and have now finally defeated the inventors of modern terrorism, armies the world over are studying your tactics, but sorry cause a loose political grouping 5000 miles away says so, we must try you for warcrimes.
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The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Leonidas ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Joined: 01-Oct-2005 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 4617 |
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The EU can pull its finger out of its ar.. and help sri lanka re-settle the poor Tamil civilians. Apperently the PRC helped sri lanka where everyone else has failed... |
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Leonidas ![]() Immortal Guard ![]() ![]() Joined: 01-Oct-2005 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 4617 |
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sparten, any strategic change here? India was supporting sri lanka but could never do so in a great way so it wouldnt anger its own Tamils. But a independant tamil state was not a good thing for them. pakistan did support the Tigers at one stage, no? pakistan would lose one lever albiet a small one (right now i wouldnt think they care - bigger issues nearer to home).
PRC might get a naval base out of this. |
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