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Forum LockedCivil War in Sri Lanka Over

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Al Jassas View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Civil War in Sri Lanka Over
    Posted: 19-May-2009 at 18:22
Hello to you all
 
Obviously no one has noticed this so here is some news, after 26 years of a very bloody civil war, Sri Lanka finally achieved victory against the Tamil Tigers:
 
 
What really bothers me is the length of this conflict. I mean Tamils are about 15% of the total population of Sri Lanka and not even half of them support the rebels (Christians and muslims are about half the Tamil population and the tigers consider them enemies and traitors). Yet they nearly won the war several times (I wont forget their massive victories in the 90s when thousand of government soldiers died during the battles for Jaffna).
 
Anyway hats off to them, they were propably the best rebel group in terms of professionalism and organization that ever existed.
 
What do you think is next for Sri Lanka, will there be victors justice or reason will rule over and reconciliation?
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19-May-2009 at 18:34
I read somewhere that the Tamils based their tactics on the tactics used by the IRA against the British in 1919-1921. How 'guerrilla' were they and what was the level of local popular support? (As in, is the 50% figure correct or is it a sign of an erosion of support over many years? Because still have 50% support after 26 years of bloody chaos is quite impressive really)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Constantine XI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 00:33
What comes next?

Terrorism.

They are a sizeable group which is dissatisfied and was prepared to resort to conventional warfare to achieve their aims. Now that the strategy of conventional military action is closed to them, they will resort to a campaign of terror. They have everything they need to make it happen: willpower, organisation, experience with and access to explosives, support of a significant percentage of the population. The conventional battles may well be over, but the suffering will continue for at least a long while yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 00:37
Originally posted by Parnell Parnell wrote:

I read somewhere that the Tamils based their tactics on the tactics used by the IRA against the British in 1919-1921. How 'guerrilla' were they and what was the level of local popular support? (As in, is the 50% figure correct or is it a sign of an erosion of support over many years? Because still have 50% support after 26 years of bloody chaos is quite impressive really)
 
Btw I get the feeling that the fight for the Sri Lankan Government isn't really over and that the fighting will enter a new entirely different phase.


Edited by Kevin - 20-May-2009 at 02:22
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 01:21
Its over I would say. Tne LTTE has been decisivly defeated. They no longer have a safe haven to plan their attacks and more importantly the Tamils in SL (not the diaspora) feel they have been defeated. Like Germany in 1945 most military age Tamils are either dead, crippled or in prison.
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Al Jassas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 05:50
Hello Parnell
 
Withall due respect, Sri Lankan civil war is no where near the Irsih civil disturbances called Irish war. More people were killed in gang land wars in New York in the same period than people in this conflict.
 
This was a full conventional war with regular units on both sides and fighting openly to control one part or the other. The LTTE had the best rebel force and best rebel organization of any force in the world and nearly achieved victory.
 
By the way many Hindu Tamils actually support the government and Tamils always had representation in the Sri Lankan parliament. I think the LTTE will wait and see what happens and will resort to terror first if the Sri Lankan government gets back on its promises.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Parnell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 10:59
Originally posted by Al Jassas Al Jassas wrote:

Hello Parnell
 
Withall due respect, Sri Lankan civil war is no where near the Irsih civil disturbances called Irish war. More people were killed in gang land wars in New York in the same period than people in this conflict.
 
 
 
I wasn't saying it was anywhere near as bloody as the Irish war of Independence, I was asking whether they modelled their tactics on the IRA 'flying columns' but on a much grander scale.
 
Tom Barry was allegedly Che Geuvara's inspiration BTW...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 11:20
The IRA was a militant organisation which bascially attacked British Army and RIC when they were'nt looking. The LTTE ran a government of their own and at one point controlled 1/3 of Sri Lanka. The events are a lot more like 1798 than 1919-1922.
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Peteratwar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 11:25
I suspect the Sri Lankan Government has a window of opportunity to make some political concessions. Ultimately if they can at least reduce the reasons for conflict there will be a better chance for peace holding given the general war-weariness around
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Omar al Hashim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 12:00
So much to say, not enough time to write a proper post.
Basically this is over iff the government is generous in victory and can convince the Tamils that the Buddhists aren't going to go around trying to massacre the Hindus again. If the Hindus think the Buddhists are still out to get them, the conflict won't finish, and the Tamil Tigers will resort to other tactics.

Hopefully I'll write more on this soon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zaitsev Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 13:50
I have to agree with the last two posts there. I believe that the war, as it can be said to have existed, is now over. The conflict, however, is yet to be resolved. With the constant alleged human rights abuses by the government, and their apparently devotion to winning the conflict militarily, it doesn't seem that Sri Lanka is looking to resolve the divide and may, in fact, be more radical than ever before.

If they do attempt to resolve the situation, however, the war weariness will likely allow a peace to hold, as has been said. If not, it is likely that more subversive, if less organised, warfare is likely to be initiated once more by less weary or satisfied members of the rebels. If this is allowed to happen, it is likely that these pockets of resistance will combine once more to form a new front.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 14:10
Tamil Tigers: pioneers of the living bomb. Good riddance.  What really chaffs me off is their annoying diaspora blockading Westminster and subsequently my journey home from work.  The cost of policing their antics has reached £8m and counting.   I am sure deporting all of the buggers would cost less.

A month or two ago, I read a headline: "protestors threaten to throw themselves into the Thames": LET them, is what I thought, and don't waste any money trying to rescue them.  They are taking bloody liberties with their uncalled for demonstrations - what effing use is it demonstrating here? Sri Lanka's literally on the other side of the world - they should take their disruptive demonstrations there, if they dare - just don't infringe my human rights, waste my money or my free time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Peteratwar Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 14:27
One thing that concerns me is the call from the EU (amongst others) for a probe into possible war crimes.
 
Firtstly this is gross interference and is nothing to do with the EU
 
Second Sri Lanka has to heal the wounds and not allow the scabs to be picked open as it were.
 
There may be a time to look at what happened. It isn't now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20-May-2009 at 20:30
The LTTE is finished and the political efforts in SL would be geared to ensuring that the events of 1983-2009 can never happen again. Why should Sri Lanka after a decisive military victory allow the very things she has fought for near three decade to prevent from coming about? Its like saying after Appomattox Court House that the Union should have accepted continued slavery since that was addressing the root cause of the war
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zaitsev Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21-May-2009 at 04:25
Originally posted by Sparten Sparten wrote:

The LTTE is finished and the political efforts in SL would be geared to ensuring that the events of 1983-2009 can never happen again. Why should Sri Lanka after a decisive military victory allow the very things she has fought for near three decade to prevent from coming about? Its like saying after Appomattox Court House that the Union should have accepted continued slavery since that was addressing the root cause of the war


It's really nothing like that. Had the South won, it would be like asking them to abolish slavery anyway. I'm sure we'd all agree that this would be a good thing. In addition, slavery was not really a root cause of the war.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23-May-2009 at 06:49
good riddance the Tigers were way to hard line to be acceptable political partners in sri lanka. They didnt accpet opposition within the tamil community and were agianst other monirities 

That island should never be divided into two states.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zagros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 12:00
For me, looking at the situation beyond how bloody annoying their zealots here are, I agree with Leonidas and would also like to point at the EU and laugh; what moral authority do those muppets in Brussels have to expect their call for an independent investigation into war crimes to be taken seriously? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sparten Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 12:37
Yes I can just about imagine the Sri Lankan government telling their army "well done guys, for a generation you have struggeled and have shed blood and have now finally defeated the inventors of modern terrorism, armies the world over are studying your tactics, but sorry cause a loose political grouping 5000 miles away says so, we must try you for warcrimes.
The Germans also take vacations in Paris; especially during the periods they call "blitzkrieg".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 12:43
Originally posted by Zagros Zagros wrote:

For me, looking at the situation beyond how bloody annoying their zealots here are, I agree with Leonidas and would also like to point at the EU and laugh; what moral authority do those muppets in Brussels have to expect their call for an independent investigation into war crimes to be taken seriously? 
none what so ever, i don't understand the EU position one bit. This was a state defending itself and doing what needed to be done, a complete victory over enemy that refused to talk or compromise. Fine if the Tigers were reasnable but they werent. People must remeber that sri lankan politicians and innocent bystanders were blown up by human bombers while the peace talks were meant to be on, cant bend over to that. Ghandi's death was the point those guys lost the plot.

The EU can pull its finger out of its ar..  and help sri lanka re-settle the poor Tamil civilians.

Apperently the PRC helped sri lanka where everyone else has failed...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Leonidas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25-May-2009 at 13:09
sparten, any strategic change here? India was supporting sri lanka but could never do so in a great way so it wouldnt anger its own Tamils. But a independant tamil state was not a good thing for them.  pakistan did support the Tigers at one stage, no? pakistan would lose one lever albiet a small one (right now i wouldnt think they care - bigger issues nearer to home).

PRC might  get a naval base out of this.
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