A return to the system of Grand Alliances?

 

I'm not saying an entente exactly like the Pre-WWI/WWI version of it but a new version of the alliance system that is the result of history and modern circumstances in which we have arrived at the same geopolitcal enviroment we had before the First World War.

 

Not so today.  The cultural differences of the 2009 galaxy of powers are much greater; the possibility of pressure from public opinion much more complicated, and, frankly, the crucial nature of natural resource dependence far more important.  The fluidity of "allied" connections is liable to be more complex going forward, and the importance of Caucasian, European/American influence much more reduced in future.

 

The critical nature of strategic arrangements and of ideological solidarity is going to be much more dependant on the availability of natural resources; on access to water, and on who the most important markets are going to be.  As the 21st century economy develops, assuming there is ongoing development, the consumer markets that are mass-dominated by low cost goods will be the more important.  There may be far, far more demand for low cost appliances and for access to electricity and clean water than there will be for BMWs and other expensive consumer products.

 

Those material market demands may be much more important than ideological concerns about political economy, or about irrelevant religious issues that only benefit fanatical "medicine men."

 

In short, don't look for a reprise of the world order 1871 to 1914.